siegel的“What is an asset price bubble? ”中一段话如何理解

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The following example emphasises the importance of long-term cash flows in
determining the price of equity. Assume a firm earns 7% real return on its capital and
pays a 4% dividend, using the remainder to buy back shares or reinvest for the future.
Assume that investors also demand a 7% real rate of return on the stock. This will
mean that the real dividend per share is expected to grow at 3% per year . （why?）These
assumptions are very close to the long-run historical data on stocks (Siegel, 2002).
In the above situation, it takes investors nearly 20 years to receive just one-half of
the present value of future dividends. The duration of this asset, which is the timeweighted
average of all future cash payouts, is nearly 27 years.（这里的20 years和27 years怎么计算出来的？）

 Even over the entire  duration of 27 years, less than two-thirds of the total present value is realised from
cash flows.

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-9-3 19:11:44编辑过]

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关键词：Siegel Bubble Price Asset Siege Price Asset What Siegel Bubble

This will mean that the real dividend per share is expected to grow at 3% per year
真实收益率7%，分红4%，每股真实收益=7%-4%=3%

it takes investors nearly 20 years to receive just one-half of the present value of future dividends. The duration of this asset, which is the time weighted average of all future cash payouts, is nearly 27 years.
投资者要收回现值一半的未来分红，需要花费20年，资产久期是27年