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英文文献：Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture International and Domestic Markets-加拿大农业国际和国内市场中期展望
英文文献作者：Charlebois, Pierre,Gagne, Stephan,Gendron, Carole
英文文献摘要：
The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the MTO covering the period 2010 to 2020. The MTO is a plausible future for the international and domestic agri-food sectors based on current policies in Canada and other countries as of Fall 2010. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis. The outlook makes specific assumptions and outlines their implications. Since it assumes that policies remain unchanged from existing legislation, the outlook is not a forecast of future events. In particular there are no assumptions made regarding the outcome of the Doha round of trade negotiations. It also assumes no impact from climate change and from policy to mitigate climate change nor significant animal disease outbreaks or unusual climatic conditions over the period of the outlook. The starting point of the MTO is world agricultural commodities price projection based on the OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook for 2009/2019 adjusted with more recent information. The Canadian macro-economic forecasts are from the Conference Board of Canada outlook published in September 2010. In addition, short-term price forecasts have been updated using United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections released in October 2010. For example, droughts in some southern hemisphere countries and China as well as the foot and mouth outbreak in South Korea have not been taken into account.
本文件的目的是描述MTO在2010年至2020年期间的特点。根据加拿大和其他国家截至2010年秋季的现行政策，MTO是国际和国内农业食品部门的一个可行的未来。它可以作为讨论和场景分析的基准。展望给出了具体的假设并概述了它们的影响。由于它假设政策保持不变，不受现有立法的影响，因此展望并不是对未来事件的预测。特别是没有对多哈回合贸易谈判的结果作出任何假设。它还假定气候变化和缓和气候变化的政策，以及重大的动物疾病暴发或不寻常的气候条件在展望期间不会产生影响。MTO的出发点是根据经最新信息调整后的经合组织/粮农组织《2009/2019年农业展望》对世界农产品价格的预测。加拿大宏观经济预测来自于2010年9月发布的加拿大经济展望会议。此外，根据美国农业部(USDA) 2010年10月发布的预测，对短期价格预测进行了更新。例如，南半球一些国家和中国的干旱以及韩国的口蹄疫爆发就没有被考虑在内。
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