Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture 2011-2021-2011-2021年加拿大农业中期展望

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英文文献：Medium Term Outlook for Canadian Agriculture 2011-2021-2011-2021年加拿大农业中期展望
英文文献作者：Unknown
英文文献摘要：
The purpose of this document is to describe the features of the Medium Term Outlook (MTO) covering the period 2011 to 2021. The MTO is a plausible future for the international and domestic agri-food sectors based on current policies in Canada and other countries as of Fall 2011. It serves as a benchmark for discussion and scenario analysis. The outlook makes specific assumptions and outlines their implications. Since it assumes that policies remain unchanged in the future it is therefore an extrapolation of what could occur based on current trends and underlying macroeconomic projections. In particular, there are no assumptions made regarding the outcome of the Doha round of trade negotiations. It also assumes no impact from climate change and from policy to mitigate climate change nor significant animal disease outbreaks or unusual climatic conditions over the period of the outlook. The starting point of the MTO is world agricultural commodities price projection based on the OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook for 2009/2019 adjusted with more recent information. The Canadian macro-economic forecasts are from the Conference Board of Canada outlook published in September 2011 In addition, short-term price forecasts have been updated using United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections released in November 2011.

本文件的目的是描述2011 - 2021年中期展望(MTO)的特点。根据加拿大和其他国家截至2011年秋季的现行政策，MTO是国际和国内农业食品部门的一个可行的未来。它可以作为讨论和场景分析的基准。展望给出了具体的假设并概述了它们的影响。由于它假设未来政策保持不变，因此它是对当前趋势和基本宏观经济预测可能发生的情况的推断。特别是，没有对多哈回合贸易谈判的结果做出任何假设。它还假定气候变化和缓和气候变化的政策，以及重大的动物疾病暴发或不寻常的气候条件在展望期间不会产生影响。MTO的出发点是根据经最新信息调整后的经合组织/粮农组织《2009/2019年农业展望》对世界农产品价格的预测。加拿大的宏观经济预测来自于2011年9月发布的加拿大经济展望会议委员会。此外，短期价格预测已经根据美国农业部(USDA)在2011年11月发布的预测进行了更新。

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