Criterions of China’s great consumer goods companies and its promising stars The 1980s and 1990s saw the rise of many great companies in the US as consumer spending boomed. We believe that China’s consumer goods industry is facing a similar period ahead. As for the stock selection, we advise the exploration of targets based on four criterions - national culture, creation of domestic demand, affordable luxury and Chinese style integration... 2009 macro economic outlook and the consumer goods industry We believe that both the global and domestic economies will remain weak in 2009 and have an adverse impact on China’s exports and FAI. Moreover, we anticipate a continued tightening monetary policy, and a deceleration in prices and GDP growth. In the textile and apparel sector, we prefer branded apparel makers. In the catering and tourism sector, we like chained stores with good growth potential. In the retail sector, we believe a rebound should occur before the prosperity reverses. We recommend avoiding investments in the food and beverage sector... Earnings forecast and valuation of SYWG China-concept consumer goods stocks As most HK-listed consumer goods stocks have PEGs of less than 1, we believe they are worth investing in now. Moreover, we believe the sector could beat the market in light of the strong performance of the US consumer sector during the 1980s and 1990s... 2009 recommended portfolio of HK-listed China-concept consumer goods sector Long position: 00538.hk,02020.hk,00322.hk;short position: 01068.hk, 02319.hk, 03818.hk
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