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老渔父按: 这是霍金关于人类未来的悲情---科学真知还是幻想？ 请发表您的看法.
英国剑桥(CNN)---斯蒂芬. 霍金教授, 世界上最伟大的科学家之一，正在向星空寻求拯救人类---但是，他的悲天怜人之情还是压倒了他天性的乐观主义。
斯蒂芬·霍金于五月份就此作了演讲，最近又向CNN记者谈到了他对未来的预见。在这个CNN的独家专访中，霍金认为人类如果还能够生存200年，并且学会在太空中生活，那么人类的未来仍将是光明的。
“我相信人类长期的未来将会在太空”，霍金如是说。肌肉萎缩硬化症（ALS）已经快使他全身瘫痪了。
“在下一个百年里，要想避免地球上的灾难将会极度困难，更不要说下一个千年，甚至百万年。人类不应该把所有的鸡蛋存放在一个篮子里，或者说一个星球上，让我们期望在鸡蛋分散储存之前篮子不要摔下。
霍金是少数几个在学术界之外盛名远播的科学家之一，这要归功于他的几本科普畅销书、他在《辛普森一家》连续剧中的客串角色，以及他深入浅出，清晰阐述复杂物理理论的能力。霍金享有12个荣誉学位，并在82年获得爵士爵位。79年之后，霍金一直在剑桥的应用数学和理论物理学部门，是鲁卡逊（Lucasian）教席教授---这曾经是艾索克牛顿（Isaac Newton）所居的席位。
在剑桥中心对数学研究做的演讲中，他说：“我看到人类正面临巨大的危险，过去有很多次，我们曾面对存亡一触即发的危险。古巴导弹危机就是其中之一。”
“在未来发生类似事件的频率将会增加，我们必需要如履薄冰，洞察明断，成功地处理这些问题。”
“不过我是一个乐观主义者。如果我们能在未来的两个世纪里幸免灾难，人类这个物种应该还是安全的，因为届时人类将散居于太空。”
二十年前，霍金写了《时间简史》，现在，他正期盼着他个人的明年飞向太空之旅。
他说：“我不认为认识太空是人类的道义职责，但是，不这样做将是愚蠢而短视的，因为人类绵延不息的生存之匙也许就在这里。” 老渔父译
英文原文练接：http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/10/09/hawking/index.html#cnnSTCText
Hawking: If we survive the next 200 years, we should be OK
CAMBRIDGE, England (CNN)-- Professor Stephen Hawking, one of the world's great scientists, is looking to the stars to save the human race -- but pessimism is overriding his natural optimism.
Stephen Hawking, here delivering a lecture in May, spoke recently to CNN about his vision of the future.
Hawking, in an exclusive interview, said that if humans can survive the next 200 years and learn to live in space, then our future will be bright.
"I believe that the long-term future of the human race must be in space," said Hawking, who is almost completely paralyzed by the illness ALS.
"It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster on planet Earth in the next 100 years, let alone next thousand, or million. The human race shouldn't have all its eggs in one basket, or on one planet. Let's hope we can avoid dropping the basket until we have spread the load."
Hawking is one of the few scientists known to a wide audience outside academia thanks to his best-selling books, a guest spot on "The Simpsons" and an ability to clearly explain the complexities of theoretical physics.
He has 12 honorary degrees, was awarded the CBE in 1982 and since 1979 has been at Cambridge University's Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, where he is Lucasian Professor of Mathematics -- a post once held by Isaac Newton.
Speaking at Cambridge's Centre for Mathematical Studies, he said: "I see great dangers for the human race. There have been a number of times in the past when its survival has been a question of touch and go. The Cuban missile crisis in 1963 was one of these.
"The frequency of such occasions is likely to increase in the future. We shall need great care and judgment to negotiate them all successfully.
"But I'm an optimist. If we can avoid disaster for the next two centuries, our species should be safe, as we spread into space."
Twenty years ago, Hawking wrote "A Brief History of Time." Now he is looking forward to a space flight of his own next year.He said: "I don't think the human race has a moral obligation to learn about space, but it would be foolish and short sighted not to do so. It may hold the key to our survival."
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-10-14 1:31:11编辑过]
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