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英文文献：Investigating the Role of Poultry in Livelihoods and the Impact of HPAI on Livelihoods Outcomes in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria-调查家禽在非洲生计中的作用以及高致病性禽流感对生计结果的影响:来自埃塞俄比亚、加纳、肯尼亚和尼日利亚的证据
英文文献作者：Birol, Ekin,Asare-Marfo, Dorene,Ayele, Gezahegn,Mensah-Bonsu, Akwasi,Ndirangu, Lydia K.,Okpukpara, Benjamin,Roy, Devesh,Yakhshilikov, Yorbol
英文文献摘要：
In this paper we investigate the role of poultry in the livelihoods portfolios of households and the impact of supply and demand shocks that may be caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) on various livelihoods outcomes of households in four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The study countries include Ethiopia and Kenya in East Africa and Ghana and Nigeria in West Africa. These countries represent a spectrum of SSA countries in terms of disease status, role of poultry sector and means of disease spread. By using nationally representative household level secondary data and discrete choice methods (probit model and zero inflated negative binomial model) we profile the household, farm and regional characteristics of those households who are most likely to keep poultry, and those who are most likely to be engaged in intensive poultry production, i.e., keep larger household flocks. We estimate the impact of the disease outbreaks and scares/threats on livelihood outcomes by using matching methods (i.e., propensity score matching). The results of this study generate valuable information regarding the role of poultry in the livelihoods of small-scale poultry producing households and the livelihood impacts of HPAI induced demand and supply shocks. Such information is critical for the design of targeted and hence efficient and effective HPAI control and mitigation policies.
在本文中，我们调查了家禽在家庭生计组合中的作用，以及高致病性禽流感(HPAI)可能导致的供需冲击对撒哈拉以南非洲四个国家家庭各种生计结果的影响。研究国家包括东非的埃塞俄比亚和肯尼亚以及西非的加纳和尼日利亚。从疾病状况、家禽部门的作用和疾病传播手段来看，这些国家代表了SSA国家的一系列。通过使用全国代表性家庭水平二级数据和离散选择方法(probit模型和零膨胀的负二项模型)我们家庭,农场和地区特点,那些最有可能的家庭饲养家禽,和那些最有可能从事密集的家禽养殖,也就是说,保持较大的家庭禽群。我们使用匹配方法(即倾向评分匹配)来估计疾病爆发和恐惧/威胁对生计结果的影响。本研究的结果提供了有关家禽在小规模家禽生产家庭生计中的作用以及高致病性禽流感引发的需求和供应冲击对生计的影响的有价值的信息。这类信息对于制定有针对性的、因而有效率和有效的高致病性禽流感控制和缓解政策至关重要。
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