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华尔街日报: 随着美国国内生产总值(GDP)正式出现收缩，市场的关注焦点也已经转移到了经济下滑的严重程度以及需要采取什么措施来推动经济复苏上。但目前看来，似乎最糟糕的时刻尚未来临。
美国第三季度GDP较上年同期收缩0.3%的消息公布后，大多数经济学家都预计，经济负增长局面至少还会持续两个季度。
摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的雷哈特(Abiel Reinhart)表示，第三季度经济下滑也预示着更坏的情况即将到来。我们现在预计，今年第四季度和明年第一季度美国GDP将平均较上年同期收缩3%，将是自1981-82年以来最严重的经济衰退。
摩根大通的经济学家预计，明年第二季度美国GDP将为零增长，明年下半年将有所回升。但他们仍然认为，美国经济增长将在一定时期内低于趋势水平。
预测机构Macroeconomic Advisers预计，今年第四季度和明年第一季度美国经济将分别较上年同期收缩2.8%和1.4%。该机构认为，如果明年政府推出新的财政刺激举措，那么经济在下半年会出现复苏。但他们也警告说，如果政府真的出台财政刺激措施，那也不会很快见效，不足以明显改善未来两个季度的GDP走势。
Mission Residential的理查德·穆迪(Richard Moody)也认为，经济要到明年下半年才可能复苏。他表示，解冻信贷市场是必要的第一步，但美国和全球经济已经蒙受的创伤还需要时间去弥合。
刚刚步入第四季度之际，整体经济曾面临着三大问题：不断上升的能源价格、信贷紧缩以及住房市场持续恶化。随着衰退迹象日益明显，能源价格已经回落，信贷市场也出现了暂时的好转迹象。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的大卫·格林劳(David Greenlaw)表示，我们仍然认为目前实施的政策举措以及有望实施的措施足以促使信贷状况出现一定程度的好转，并最终增加整体经济的稳定性。但这个过程需要时间，目前经济活动仍在下滑中。
然而，住房市场问题依然挥之不去。在10月份信贷危机全面爆发以前，住房市场曾显示出了一些持稳迹象。但更加收紧的信贷状况、不断增加的失业人数以及日益疲软的经济可能会对房价进一步施加压力。许多经济学家表示，如果住房价格没有触底，经济是不可能复苏的。
因此，即便大多数经济学家现在预测经济将在明年下半年开始复苏，美国经济仍然面临着下行风险。
When Will The Economy Recover?
Now that gross domestic product has officially gone negative, focus has turned to how deep the downturn will be and what needs to happen for the economy to recover. But for now, it looks like the worst is still to come.
Following the release of a 0.3% contraction in third-quarter GDP at an annual rate, most economists are forecasting at least two more negative quarters.
'The drop in third-quarter output is also a harbinger of much worse things to come. We now expect that GDP will contract at an average 3% annualized pace in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2009, generating the worst recession since 1981-82,' said Abiel Reinhart of JPMorgan Chase.
Economists at JPMorgan expect GDP to be flat in the second quarter of 2009, before recovering somewhat in the second half. However, they continue to see growth remaining below trend for some time.
Forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers expects an annualized contraction of 2.8% and 1.4% in the fourth quarter and first quarter, respectively. MA says a recovery in the second half assumes there will be additional fiscal stimulus in 2009. However, they warn that if it does arrive, 'it will not do so soon enough to improve materially the GDP outlook for the next two quarters.'
Richard Moody of Mission Residential also doesn't expect recovery until the second half of 2009. 'Unclogging the credit markets is a necessary first step, but the damage done to the U.S. and foreign economies thus far will take time to undo,' he said.
Going into the fourth quarter there were three major problems weighing on the broader economy: rising energy prices, tighter credit and the continued deterioration in the housing market. The clearer indications of recession have already brought down energy prices, and there are tentative signs of improvement in the credit markets.
'We continue to believe that the policy measures now in place - along with those that appear to be in the pipeline - will be sufficient to produce some healing in credit conditions and eventually lead to some stability in the overall economy,' said David Greenlaw at Morgan Stanley. 'However, this process will take time and a collapse in economic activity is just getting underway.'
However, the housing market is a problem that isn't going away. There were some indications of stabilization in the housing market before the credit crunch moved into full swing in October. But tighter credit conditions, mounting job losses and a weaker economy are likely to continue putting pressure on prices. Many economists say that a recovery is impossible until a floor emerges for home prices.
So even though most economists are forecasting a recovery to begin in the second half of 2009, the risks continue to be to the downside.
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-11-2 19:06:17编辑过]
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