Staple Food Price Volatility and Its Policy Implications in Kenya-肯尼亚的主食价格波...

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英文文献：Staple Food Price Volatility and Its Policy Implications in Kenya-肯尼亚的主食价格波动及其政策影响
英文文献作者：Nzuma, Jonathan M.,Karugia, T.J.,Wanjiku, J.,Wambua, J.,Kirui, Oliver K.
英文文献摘要：
This paper evaluates the trends in staple food price volatility in Kenya for maize, wheat and Irish potatoes relative to three other Eastern Africa countries (Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda) using the unconditional and the conditional standard deviation. The paper tests the volatility of food prices during the global food crisis of 2007–2008. Using monthly wholesale prices data for maize, wheat and Irish potatoes in Kenya for the period January 2003 to February 2012, the paper estimates the conditional and unconditional price volatility and compares it with similar estimates from Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania. Overall the volatility of commodity prices in Kenya as implied by the unconditional standard deviation is in the range of 12% to 32% with maize prices being the most volatile followed by Irish potatoes. Wheat prices are the least volatile in Kenya. Compared with the Eastern Africa region, maize and wheat markets in Kenya are more volatile than counterpart markets in Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda. Furthermore, Irish potato prices in Kenya are less volatile than markets in Ethiopia but more volatile than those in Uganda and Tanzania. Given the persistent commodity price volatility in Kenya, this study recommends several policy options to deal with price volatility. These include supply response stimulating programmes such as governments buying surplus as buffer stock at competitive prices; input subsidy programmes; food for work programmes targeted to the poor working in agriculture; and establishing market information systems to avail better information about prices and stock levels.

本文使用无条件标准偏差和条件标准偏差评估了肯尼亚玉米、小麦和爱尔兰马铃薯的主食价格波动趋势，并比较了其他三个东非国家(埃塞俄比亚、坦桑尼亚和乌干达)。这篇论文测试了2007-2008年全球粮食危机期间粮食价格的波动性。利用肯尼亚2003年1月至2012年2月的玉米、小麦和爱尔兰土豆的月度批发价格数据，本文估计了有条件和无条件的价格波动，并将其与埃塞俄比亚、乌干达和坦桑尼亚的类似估计进行了比较。从无条件标准差可以看出，肯尼亚商品价格的波动幅度在12%到32%之间，其中玉米价格波动最大，其次是爱尔兰土豆。在肯尼亚，小麦价格波动最小。与东非地区相比，肯尼亚的玉米和小麦市场比埃塞俄比亚、坦桑尼亚和乌干达的玉米和小麦市场更不稳定。此外，肯尼亚的爱尔兰马铃薯价格波动比埃塞俄比亚市场小，但比乌干达和坦桑尼亚市场波动更大。鉴于肯尼亚商品价格的持续波动，本研究建议了几种应对价格波动的政策选择。其中包括刺激供应反应的方案，例如政府以竞争性价格购买盈余作为缓冲库存;输入补贴计划;以工作换粮食方案针对在农业工作的穷人;建立市场信息系统，以便更好地获取有关价格和库存水平的信息。

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