Farm diversification and climate change: Implications for food security in ...

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英文文献：Farm diversification and climate change: Implications for food security in Northern Namibia-农业多样化和气候变化:对纳米比亚北部粮食安全的影响
英文文献作者：Mulwa, Chalmers,Visser, Martine
英文文献摘要：
Limited non-farm opportunities in the rural areas of the developing world, coupled with population growth, means agriculture will continue to play a dominant role as a source of livelihood in these areas. Thus, while rural transformation has dominated recent literature as a way of improving welfare through diversifying into non-farm sectors, improving productivity and resilience to shocks in smallholder agricultural production cannot be downplayed. This is especially so given the changing climatic conditions affecting agricultural production, and thus threatening many livelihoods in rural areas. Farm diversification is an important strategy for creating resilience against climatic shocks in farm production. Using cross-sectional data from northern Namibia, the study assesses the barriers and success factors related to effective crop and livestock enterprises diversification and the effect of these on food security outcomes. A Seemingly Unrelated Regression model is used to assess the joint factors explaining total farm diversification, while a step-wise error correction model is used to evaluate the conditional effect of diversification in each of the two farm enterprises on two measures of food security: food expenditure and dietary diversity. We find that past exposure to climate shocks informs current diversification levels and that access to climate information is a key success factor for both livestock and crop diversification. In terms of food security, greater diversification in either crop or livestock production leads to higher food security outcomes, with neither crop nor livestock diversification showing dominance in affecting food security outcomes. However, an overall higher level of diversification in both livestock and crop enterprises is dominant in explaining food security outcomes.

发展中世界农村地区有限的非农业机会，加上人口增长，意味着农业将继续作为这些地区的生计来源发挥主导作用。因此，尽管农村转型作为通过向非农部门多元化来改善福利的一种方式，在最近的文献中占主导地位，但提高生产率和提高小农农业生产对冲击的适应能力不能被忽视。鉴于不断变化的气候条件影响到农业生产，从而威胁到农村地区的许多生计，情况尤其如此。农业多样化是提高农业生产抵御气候冲击能力的一项重要战略。利用来自纳米比亚北部的横断面数据，该研究评估了与有效作物和畜牧业企业多样化相关的障碍和成功因素，以及它们对粮食安全结果的影响。一个看似无关的回归模型是用来评估联合因素解释总农业多样化,而步进式误差修正模型是用来评估多元化的条件影响的两个农场企业食品安全的两个措施:食品支出和饮食的多样性。我们发现，过去的气候冲击影响了目前的多样化水平，获取气候信息是畜牧和作物多样化的一个关键成功因素。在粮食安全方面，作物或牲畜生产的更多样化会带来更高的粮食安全结果，而作物和牲畜的多样化在影响粮食安全结果方面都没有表现出主导作用。然而，牲畜和作物企业整体上较高程度的多样化在解释粮食安全结果方面占主导地位。

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