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目录
一、下行经济周期中的世界经济......................................................................3
1.世界经济衰退已成定局............................................................................3
2.中国经济进入本轮周期收缩阶段............................................................6
二、顺周期的经济增长趋势..............................................................................7
(一)三大需求增长前景堪忧........................................................................8
1外需萎缩导致出口增长前景黯淡........................................................8
2.房地产市场调整和出口制造业拖累投资增速.................................10
3.下行周期中的消费增长乏力............................................................11
（二）通缩风险显著增强..........................................................................13
1.CPI和PPI急剧回落.........................................................................13
2.货币供应持续回落............................................................................14
三、反周期的促增长政策................................................................................15
（一）前期政策的积累..............................................................................15
（二）政策延伸和预期..............................................................................17
1.宽松货币政策....................................................................................17
2.积极财政政策....................................................................................19
3．收入政策..........................................................................................20
四、2009年经济：政策和周期的博弈...........................................................21
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