2009年美国通信设备行业展望

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Uncertain Start for '09
Tweaking Wireless Estimates
SUMMARY
Our checks indicate 4Q08 handset shipments were in line with our seq. flat estimate
of 310M-315M units. Although any scenario could still play out for '09, 1Q is off to a
slow start. We expect sell-in to be lower than recent normal seasonality (we model
an 18% QoQ decline) and look for a very back-end-loaded qtr. Inventories are low
and at a point where even if there were an uptick in demand, there is negligible
excess inventory to capture it. Given the lean channel and poor demand, we see
downside to Nokia's and Motorola's Street estimates and have adjusted our
estimates downward. We believe both are seeing share losses. Our views on the
supply chain are mixed. Our RF players work on a hub basis with OEMs and to a
large extent have absorbed the inventory step-downs in the Dec. qtr. Yet the
uncertain '09 outlook (we're cutting our industry projections again) could weigh on
results. We're tempering Skyworks and RFMD estimates as a result. Qualcomm
could still be impacted for some time as MSM inventory works through, but
shipments at its top customers Samsung and LG are holding up comparatively well.
We're leaving our below-Street estimates for QCOM alone for now.
KEY POINTS
n More cautious on 1Q09 and 2009--We're reducing our handset estimates for
1Q09 (to 258M from 266M) and 2009 (to 1,133M from 1,168M). We believe 1Q
is off to a slower than expected start and now model an 18% QoQ drop vs. the
more temperate 10%-15% declines seen the last several years. For full-year '09,
we now expect a 7.8% decline vs. our previous 5.0% down model. We expect a
challenging start to the year, but any scenario could still come into play in 2H09.
n Nokia weaker than expected--Although Nokia revised its 4Q08 twice, we
believe Street estimates haven't been pulled down far enough. We expect
margins to be under pressure through 2Q09 as opex remains high and is slowly
worked down. We also believe Nokia is losing share in certain regions. We
expect a 4Q miss and weak commentary on the 1Q09 outlook.
n Motorola bleeding all over–Our checks suggest Motorola is experiencing
strong competitive pressures and is losing ground in the only market it still has a
strong position in – the U.S. We wouldn't rule out the possibility of 20M handset
shipments or lower in 4Q08 and believe an even tougher 1Q09 is ahead.
n Koreans holding up--We believe Samsung and LG held up better than the
other OEMs in 4Q08 thanks to aggressive marketing. We look for LG to come in
in-line with Street expectations of ~25M; Samsung may see a miss to its
guidance of ~56M (mainly in emerging regions), although we remain
comfortable with our 53M estimate. Overall, this is a positive point for
Qualcomm.
n Cautious outlook--We maintain Outperform ratings on QCOM, RFMD, SWKS
and CELL with a longer term perspective, but are cautious on the overall
wireless segment near term and see downside risk. With the small wireless rally
over the past week, we would move to the sidelines and wait for EPS estimates
to reset lower before becoming more aggressive mid-year.

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2009年美国通信设备行业展望
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