山西证券-2009年中国宏观经济展望：中国经济在金融危机与宏观政策抗衡中艰难前行-090122

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山西证券-2009年中国宏观经济展望：中国经济在金融危机与宏观政策抗衡中艰难前行-090122
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目录
1．2008年中国经济回顾：寻找本轮经济调整的根本因素···············5
1.1经济结构调整是内生因素···························································5
1.2次贷危机是外生因素··································································7
1.3多变的宏观政策调控是市场预期变化的不稳定因素···················10
2．工业决定中国经济走向·····························································12
2.1主要工业数据分析·····································································12
2.2去库存化将伴随整个年度···························································13
2.3经济增长艰难保“8”：呈现“U”型复苏······································14
3．万亿投资效果显著，挤出效应较小············································16
3.1数万亿投资计划规模空前···························································16
3.2房地产市场持续低迷拖累中国经济·············································19
3.3投资带动经济效果将会显著，挤出效应较小·······························20
3.4“反周期”的积极财政政策力度不同以往·····································22
4．扩大消费任重道远·····································································23
4.1消费结构存在的问题··································································24
4.2扩大消费的空间和潜力在于农村·················································25
4.3政府刺激消费主要措施·······························································27

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关键词：中国宏观经济 金融危机 中国经济 经济展望 宏观政策 中国经济 金融危机 宏观经济 展望 山西证券