高盛2009报告
中国宏观经济分析（2008.10）
——中国改革基金研究会国民经济研究所
2007年中国国际收支报告
国家外汇管理局国际收支分析小组 2008年6月5日
目录
一、国际收支概况.................................5
（一）国际收支运行环境..................................................................5
（二）国际收支主要特点..................................................................7
（三）国际收支运行评价................................................................11
二、国际收支主要项目分析........................13
（一）货物贸易...............................................................................13
（二）服务贸易...............................................................................15
（三）直接投资...............................................................................17
（四）证券投资...............................................................................19
（五）外债........................................................................................21
三、外汇市场运行与人民币汇率....................26
（一）银行间外汇市场改革和建设情况.......................................26
（二）人民币对主要货币汇率走势...............................................28
（三）银行间外汇市场交易...........................................................32
四、国际收支形势展望和政策取向..................35
（一）形势展望...............................................................................35
（二）政策取向...............................................................................38
4
专栏
1. 2007年改善国际收支状况的涉外经济政策调整
2. 取消经常项目外汇账户限额，境内机构自主保留外汇
3. 合格境内机构投资者制度（QDII）的进展
4. 部分经济体外债规模和风险指标情况比较
5. 美国次贷危机的启示
图
1. 2007年人民币对美元汇率中间价走势图
2. 2007年人民币对欧元、日元、港元、英镑中间价走势图
3. 2007年人民币对美元汇率中间价隔日波幅
4. 2007年人民币对美元盘中交易汇价波动
5. 2007年境内一年期远期（掉期）美元贴水
表
1. 2007年中国国际收支平衡表
2. 2001-2007年国际收支顺差结构
3. 部分经济体2006年末外债指标情况
4. 2007年银行间外币买卖市场各外币对交易情况
2008美国总统经济报告
chapter 1. the year in review and the years ahead....................... 25
Developments in 2007 and the Near-Term Outlook...................... 27
Consumer Spending and Saving................................................ 27
Housing Prices.......................................................................... 29
Residential Investment.............................................................. 30
Business Fixed Investment......................................................... 32
Business Inventories.................................................................. 34
Government Purchases.............................................................. 34
Exports and Imports.................................................................. 35
Employment.............................................................................. 37
Productivity............................................................................... 38
Prices and Wages....................................................................... 40
Financial Markets...................................................................... 42
The Long-Term Outlook Through 2013....................................... 43
Growth in GDP over the Long Term....................................... 43
The Composition of Income over the Long Term.................... 47
Conclusion..................................................................................... 48
chapter 2. credit and housing markets.......................................... 51
What are Credit Markets?............................................................... 52
Recent Developments in Mortgage Markets................................... 53
Credit Market Disruptions in 2007................................................ 61
Credit Market Link to Mortgages............................................. 61
Flight to Quality....................................................................... 62
Contraction of the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Market..... 64
Slower Merger and Acquisition Activity.................................... 65
Equity Markets.......................................................................... 66
International Implications......................................................... 67
Policy Response to Credit Market Disruptions............................... 67
Policy Response to Housing Market Challenges............................. 68
Addressing Current Challenges.................................................. 68
Strengthening the Mortgage Market for the Future................... 71
Macroeconomic Implications.......................................................... 74
Conclusion..................................................................................... 76
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