变革中的中国对巴西的影响：一个新的机会窗口？

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TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ....................................................................................................................................... 7  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 9  
A Changing China in a Changing World .............................................................................. 10
Brazil’s Evolving Linkages with China ................................................................................ 12
Policy Implications for Brazil ............................................................................................... 14  INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 19  
In Context: Brazil’s Growing Connections with China ........................................................ 19
The Outlook: Relevance of a Changing China for Brazil ..................................................... 20
This Report: Objective, Scope and Structure ........................................................................ 21  
PART 1.  A CHANGING CHINA IN A CHANGING WORLD ................................................ 23  
I. China’s Journey of Structural Transformation ................................................................... 23
A. The Past Three Decades: China’s Journey of Economic Reform ........................... 23
B. The Next Two Decades: A New Phase in China’s Development ........................... 25
II. China in the World: Growing Integration and Mutual Dependence ................................. 31
A. China’s Position in the World ................................................................................. 31
B. Relations between China and the World ................................................................. 34  
PART 2.  BRAZIL’S EVOLVING LINKAGES WITH CHINA................................................. 39  
I. Looking Back: Facets and Characteristics over the Last Decade ...................................... 39
A. Facets of the Brazil-China Relationship: Trade, Investment and Indirect Effects .. 40
B. Characteristics of the Relationship: Complementarity and Similarity .................... 47
II. Looking Ahead: Impact of a Changing China on Brazil .................................................. 61
A. Changes in China: A More Detailed Analysis ........................................................ 61
B. Implications for Brazil: Rising Complementarity, Changing Similarity ................. 65  
PART 3.  POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR BRAZIL .................................................................. 69  
I. Growth Expectations and Structural Reform ..................................................................... 69
A. Recent Developments: Muted Growth Expectations .............................................. 70
B. Structural Reform: The Unfinished Agenda ............................................................ 72
II. Scope for Enhancing Global Integration .......................................................................... 75
A. Has Trade with China Made Brazil Too Outward Oriented? .................................. 75
B. Has Brazil’s Trade Structure Become Too Concentrated? ...................................... 82
C. Has Brazil Become Too Specialized in Commodities? ........................................... 87
III. Leveraging External Connections with China ................................................................. 93
A. Tackling Home-Grown Supply-Side Constraints .................................................... 93
B. Enhancing the External Environment for Trade and Investment ............................ 98  REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 107

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关键词：Implications relationship Expectations introduction concentrated 中国 巴西 影响

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edcv25810 发表于 2015-12-10 22:38
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本报告分析了中国结构性变革预计给巴西带来怎样的机遇和挑战，从而提高其全球地位和激发经济增长活力。基于近期的研究成果（世界银行和发展研究中心，2013年），本报告确定了中国经济长期转型的三大潜在趋势——结构性增长放缓，需求和供给的再平衡，及向价值链高端攀升——并分析了这三大趋势对巴西的影响。本报告研究表明，即使中国向价值链高端攀升可能也会带来新挑战，但中国经济的放缓和再平衡也可能会为巴西带来机遇。本文还阐述了巴西如何从与中国的互动中获得更多益处，以及中国的变化如何为巴西继续推进结构性改革议程提供新的机会窗口。总的来说，巴西可从中国预期的结构改革中获得巨大的好处，虽然要实现这些惠益需要采取积极的政策立场以加强外部联系，并破除阻碍内部（经济）增长和生产率提高的藩篱。