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Balance Sheet Nearly Beyond Repair
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Ford’s fourth quarter was a complete disaster. The reported net loss (ex
items) was $1.37 per share, about 2X our expected loss of $0.69/share, and
wider than the consensus loss of $1.19/share.
■
The disappointment could be seen more clearly in the cash burn for the
quarter. Ford incinerated $7.2 billion of the stuff in the fourth quarter, which
was worse than the $4 - $5 billion consensus expectation; a wider delta than
would be implied by the difference between reported (operating) EPS of
($1.37) and the consensus of ($1.19).
■
On an operating basis, Ford’s international operations were broadly
disappointing: Europe produced a loss of $330 million pretax (about $270
million worse than our forecast) and Volvo posted a hefty $736 million pretax
loss ($400 worse than our estimate).
■
In response to the decimation of its cash hoard in 2008, Ford announced
Thursday that it intends to (just about) fully draw its $10.6 billion revolver,
pulling the available $10.1 billion, which should hit its account in early
February.
■
While the cash burn is expected to moderate in 2009, the damage has
already been done. Indeed, Ford burned so much cash in 2008 that even
using our 2010 estimate (with nearly $6.1 billion in EBITDA) yields a
negative value on our DCF.
■
We are introducing a 2011 estimate of breakeven (with about $8.1 billion of
EBITDA). Using this level of profits as the starting point for our DCF (and
taking into account about $9 billion of cash burn in the interim) yields a
target price of $1.00, unchanged from our prior view.
Share price performance
4
6
8
10
Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08
Daily Jul 26, 2007 - Jul 23, 2008, 7/26/07 = $8.09
Price Indexed S&P 500
On 07/23/08 the S&P 500 index closed at 1282.19
Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008A 0.20 -0.62 -1.31 -1.37
2009E -0.81 -0.51 -0.43 -0.13
2010E — — — —
Financial and valuation metrics
Year 12/08A 12/09E 12/10E
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