摩根斯坦利——中国资本市场分析——2009年2月

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摩根斯坦利——中国资本市场分析——2009年2月
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Contents
Sector Snapshot....................................................................................................................................... 2
Industry Overview....................................................................................................................................... 3
Stock Recommendations .....................................................................................................................................3
Top 5 Reasons to Avoid This Sector for Now ............................................................................................. 5
Key Short-Term Investment Issues: Still Too Early to Buy ......................................................................... 8
Key Long-Term Investment Themes: A Better Future .............................................................................. 17
Price Target Methodology and Valuation .................................................................................................. 22
Company Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 24
Parkson Retail Group Ltd.......................................................................................................................... 25
Golden Eagle Retail Group ....................................................................................................................... 42
Intime Department Store (Group).............................................................................................................. 57
New World Department Store China Limited ............................................................................................ 69
Fundamental Framework....................................................................................................................... 80
#1 & #2: Market Potential & Store Competitiveness: Key Differentiators ................................................ 81
#3: SSS Growth Defensiveness Not All Same-Store Sales Growth Is Created Equal ............................. 89
#4: Concession Margin Defensiveness Concession Margin Is as Important as Same-Store Sales Growth93
Appendices ........................................................................................................................................... 104

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关键词：中国资本市场 资本市场分析 摩根斯坦利 资本市场 中国资本 资本市场 摩根斯坦利