发帖
雷达卡
January 25th 2016
Is the US at risk of a recession in 2016?
Sharp swings in equity, commodity and currency markets in the opening weeks of 2016 have renewed investor fears about the economic outlook. US stockmarkets endured the worst recorded start to a new year on record, and industry is being hurt by the strong dollar and falling energy prices. Nevertheless, The Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect a US recession in 2016. Domestic demand remains strong and fundamentals suggest that this business cycle has some distance left to run.
The speculation that the US is on the verge of a recession is based around three key trends. First, a stockmarket slump wiped US$1.4trn from the value of the S&P 500 in the first ten trading days of the year. Second, industrial production declined by 1.8% year on year in December 2015, a contraction usually only seen during recessions. Third, estimates suggest that real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 slowed to a scant 0.7% on an annualised basis. George Soros, a billionaire investor, said that the challenges facing financial markets reminded him of the conditions ahead of the global financial crisis in 2008.
A repricing of risk, not a recession
The economic risks have increased, but these three trends do not suggest that a recession is imminent. First, the stockmarket correction largely reflects external events—uncertainty over the Chinese economy and the plunge in global oil prices—rather than domestic concerns. (The stockmarket has predicted nine of the last five recessions, as the old joke goes.) Second, a decline in industrial production often coincides with recessions but is no longer sufficient to trigger one. The services sector, which accounts for around 85% of GDP, is far more important to today's economy and it is expanding comfortably. Finally, slowing economic growth in the fourth quarter is largely due to a cyclical fall in inventories; domestic demand remained strong. Even Mr Soros's warnings carry little weight; his recent remarks echo ones that he made in 2011 when he said that the European debt crisis was "more serious than the crisis of 2008".
The turbulent start to 2016 therefore reflects a shift in sentiment and a reassessment of risk rather than an economic downturn. The Economist Intelligence Unit had warned that greater market volatility would be one consequence of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) tightening monetary policy.
However, if markets continue to slide, these fears could feed through to the real economy. A prolonged stockmarket slump would depress confidence, quashing consumer spending and business investment. The risk of problems in the equity market affecting the real economy is higher in the US, as household wealth is more exposed to stock prices; more than one-half of Americans invest in the stockmarket. A market correction could therefore become a self-fulfilling recession.
Canaries in the coal mine
If that were the case, which indicators would show that the stockmarket slump was feeding through to the real economy? It is notoriously difficult to forecast recessions, and hard even to know when the economy is in the midst of one, as GDP data is issued at a lag and prone to large revisions. The most useful warning signs of an economic slowdown, therefore, are found in the job and bond markets. In the last three recessions, in 1990, 2001 and 2007, initial jobless claims typically started rising 6‑12 months ahead of the crash, and short-term interest rates exceeded long-term rates, inverting the yield curve on US government bonds (as measured by the spread between the two-year and the ten-year bond).
Initial jobless claims remain low
If the US were falling into recession, these indicators would be flashing red. But neither is at present. Initial jobless claims have ticked up slightly in the past three months but are still at very low levels. Nonetheless, if claims continued to rise throughout the first quarter, this would become worrying. The US yield curve, meanwhile, has flattened slightly, as it usually does following the start of a policy-rate increase, but it is far from inverting. While a renewed market slump could move these indicators in the coming months, the US has clearly not entered a recession. Furthermore, we do not expect these indicators to move further in this direction, and maintain our forecast that the economy will expand by 2.4% in 2016.
Three more years of economic expansion
The market turbulence at the start of 2016 shows, not for the first time, that the slow US recovery is vulnerable to external shocks. It is also a warning that years of unprecedented liquidity from central banks have inflated some asset markets. The relationship between prices and profits had weakened, and a correction was overdue. Nevertheless, we maintain our view that the market moves are a reassessment of risk rather than signs of a recession.
Indeed, if the US, as we expect, withstands these shocks, slack in the economy suggests that the business cycle has another three years to run. Households have paid down a large chunk of debt (debt-service costs as a share of disposable income are at a 35‑year low), the housing market has plenty of room to grow (the home-ownership rate has ticked up to 63.7% but is still far below the level of 69.2% reached in 2004) and the government is starting to provide more support (the fiscal deficit will widen in 2016 after shrinking for six years).
There are significant political implications associated with our forecast of three more years of expansion. The presidential election in November will take place at the end of the seventh consecutive year of economic growth, at a time of low unemployment and rising wages. The party that controls the White House will get the credit for this, which is one reason why we expect the likely Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, to be the next president. However, this could be a poisoned chalice. This is already the fourth-longest US economic expansion on record, and it is highly likely that a recession will happen during the first term of the next president. If so, the risk is that Barack Obama's successor will spend only one term as president before being booted out by voters disillusioned with their waning economic fortunes.
先沙发，再看内容。。。
京公网安备 11010802022788号
