巴克莱2009商品预测（172页）

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2009-3-2 16:09:00 上传

巴克莱2009商品预测
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Commodity markets have fallen back sharply under the weight of a rapidly
deteriorating outlook for global growth. Thin trading conditions have exacerbated the
downfall, pushing implied volatility in many markets to all-time highs. Although the
pace of decline in commodity prices has slowed in December, there is still potential
downside risk to prices should financial markets remain unstable, the dollar continue to
strengthen and global growth projections continue to be cut.
In the space of just a few months commodity markets have had to cope with a complete
reshaping of the economic landscape, and in a very short space of time have priced in
expectations of a recession in both the global economy and demand. Prices have
collapsed under the weight of a unique combination of factors, namely risk reduction,
an extreme contraction in liquidity and a rapid lowering of global growth expectations.
The extreme weakness at the front end of forward price curves has led to a severe
dislocation in time spreads, which are the widest in decades. With the market focused
on demand and how bad it could get, the flood of grim end-use data has eroded
sentiment to very low levels indeed.
Significant portions of existing output are unable to cover cash costs at current prices
and output cuts are being rapidly enacted alongside the deferral of large numbers of
new projects that have become difficult to finance in the current environment. The
damage being done to the supply side in a number of commodities markets suggests
prices could recover quickly once the mood of pessimism surrounding global growth
prospects starts to clear. We expect price volatility to stay elevated by historical
standards as liquidity is thin, short positions in a number of markets are large and the
potential for both demand and supply shocks is high.
For the next six months at least, markets are likely to be very choppy, and we believe
dynamic long-short/market neutral strategies will provide the best returns.

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-3-2 16:09:24编辑过]

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关键词：巴克莱 Expectations expectation environment Commodities 预测 商品 巴克莱