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source from:FT
GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW
Last updated: April 19, 2016 11:00 am
Stocks hit fresh 2016 highs
Jamie Chisholm, Global Markets Commentator
Tuesday 11:00 BST. A global stock barometer is climbing to 2016 highs after Tokyo rebounded and Wall Street shrugged off volatility in the oil sector to register its best close in nearly five months.
The risk-positive mood is pressuring government bond prices, nudging yields higher, and weakening the Japanese yen. Gold is up 11 dollars to 1,242 dollars an ounce as the dollar weakens, and silver is jumping 2.9 per cent to 16.70 dollars an ounce as the metal breaks out of a multimonth trading range.
The FTSE All-World equity index is gaining 0.7 per cent to 268.9, its highest since early December, as the pan-European Stoxx 600 advances 1.4 per cent and US index futures suggest the S&P 500 will open up 0.4 per cent at 2,104.
The Wall Street benchmark finished Monday also at its highest since the start of December, taking it to within 2 per cent of last May’s record, and its rally off session lows is setting the bullish tone across global markets.
Investors are excited by New York’s stoic performance in the face of a twitchy oil market, where Brent crude initially fell 7 per cent on Monday following the collapse of talks for an output freeze by major producers, but recovered to finish only slightly lower in New York.
Brent currently is up 1.6 per cent to 43.56 dollars a barrel as worries about a strike by Kuwaiti energy sector workers continues to underpin the international energy benchmark.
The idea that the machinations in the oil sector do not currently have such a tight hold on stock market sentiment is encouraging for equity bulls.
Also helping to lift Wall Street is the ongoing first-quarter corporate earnings season. Analysts had forecast a pretty poor batch of results and many companies are managing to beat these expectations. Not all have been so well-received, however. Netflix shares took a hit in after-hours trading when the media group warned of slowing subscriber growth.
Japanese equities were whacked at the start of the week — the Nikkei 225 shed 3.4 per cent — as the sharp plunge in oil prices during Asian trading hit risk appetite and boosted the yen.
The reversal of that trend has consequently allowed the Nikkei 225 to rally 3.7 per cent on Tuesday, with investors also noting that the economic impact of the recent earthquakes on the island of Kyushu may be counteracted by more stimulus measures from the Bank of Japan.
“With big carmakers forced to suspend production nationally by the disruption of supply chains caused by the quake, industrial production is likely to contract in April, increasing the probability that the economy could succumb to negative growth in the second quarter,” said economists at BNP Paribas. They forecast a 0.2 per cent contraction in gross domestic product during the second quarter.
The BoJ is due to deliver its latest policy decision at the end of the month and the possibility of interest rates being pushed further into negative territory is hurting the yen.
After hitting 107.81 yen per dollar on Monday, the Japanese currency is 0.5 per cent softer on the session at 109.38 yen.
The dollar index is down 0.1 per cent to 94.36, hovering just above five-month lows as investors continue to weigh the recent shift to a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve’s.
This stance has been helping suppress Treasury yields of late, though the more chipper mood across markets on Tuesday is crimping demand for some fixed income assets and the 10-year Treasury yield is adding 2 basis points to 1.79 per cent.
Equivalent maturity German Bund yields are adding 1bp at 0.18 per cent ahead of Thursday’s monetary policy decision from the European Central Bank. The euro is up 0.2 per cent to 1.1332 dollars .
South Korea’s won is among the best-performing Asian currencies, up 1.3 per cent after the Bank of Korea kept interest rates on hold, but downgraded its growth and inflation forecasts for the second time this year. Korea’s Kospi Composite was flat.
The Malaysian ringgit, which has been sensitive to moves in the oil price, rose 1.1 per cent, with commodity currencies like the Aussie and Canadian dollars also firmer.
Sydney’s stock market benefited from strength in resources stocks, the S&P/ASX 200 adding 1 per cent, while in greater China the Shanghai Composite rose 0.3 per cent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 1.3 per cent.
Additional reporting by Peter Wells in Hong Kong
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