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数千亿美元的紧急政府支出为中国经济注入了一剂强心针。中国官方数据显示，上月工业增加值和零售额大幅跃升。
中国上周五公布上述强劲数据之时，其它数据显示，今年5月中国各银行新增贷款总额有所增加，使今年迄今各银行发放的贷款总额超过2009年全年的官方目标。
不过，经济学家警告称，私营部门的增长依然疲弱，并对经济反弹的基础强度表示怀疑。
中国央行一份调查报告显示，尽管中国经济依然有持续通缩的风险，但家庭通胀预期已升至创纪录高位。
今年5月，工业增加值同比增长8.9%，高于4月份7.3%的同比增幅。零售额同比上升15.2%，4月份的增幅为14.8%。
上述数据公布前一天，中国表示，上月投资额已飙升至创纪录高位。尽管进出口有所下滑，但经济学家表示，中国进出口均已企稳，若按照经过季节性因素调整的月度数据衡量，基本持平。苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)经济学家贝哲民(Ben Simpfendorfer)表示：“消费表现强劲，但政府支出起到了一定作用。我不太相信中国经济已出现根本性反弹。”
“由于出口仍显疲弱，强劲的（工业增加值）数据下半年很难持续。”
今年5月，中国各银行新增贷款6645亿元人民币（合972亿美元），高于4月份的5918亿元人民币，但远低于第一季度平均每个月1.52万亿元人民币的水平。
这使得今年以来的新增贷款总额达到5.8万亿元人民币，超出了全年5万亿元的官方目标。
政府对新建基础设施及大量新增银行贷款的重视，已触发了一些监管官员对于刚刚萌生的通胀的担忧。
中国央行上周五公布的一份调查报告显示，今年第二季度，表示价格“高得令人难以接受”的家庭总数升至43.3%，高于第一季度26.1%的水平。
调查报告还显示，对收入表示“满意”的家庭数量跌至1999年开始记录以来的最低水平。
中国政府已命令国有企业减薪而不裁员，要求所有企业在大量裁员之前必须获得批准。
中国政府担心，大范围失业可能会导致社会不安定。但许多官员更担心可能引发公众抗议的高通胀。
最近几个月，中国的消费者及生产者价格均出现了轻微通缩。一些经济学家认为，许多行业产能过剩、以及对中国出口的需求骤降，意味着中国将持续面临价格下降的风险，这种风险要高于高通胀。
译者/陈云飞
Hundreds of billions of dollars in emergency government spending has given the Chinese economy a shot in the arm, with official figures showing factory output and retail sales surged last month.
Friday's strong data came as other figures showed new lending by China's banks increased in May, taking the total amount of loans made by its banks this year above the government's target for the whole of 2009.
Economists warned, however, that growth in the private sector remained weak, and questioned the underlying strength of the rebound.
A central bank survey showed household inflation expectations had risen to a record high even though the economy remained at risk of a sustained bout of deflation.
Industrial production rose 8.9 per cent in May from a year earlier, higher than April's 7.3 per cent year-on-year growth. Retail sales increased 15.2 per cent in May from a year earlier after a 14.8 per cent rise the previous month.
The figures came a day after China said investment had surged to record highs last month. Although exports and imports fell, economists said they had stabilised and were flat on a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis. “Consumption is firm but government spending is playing a role. I am less convinced of an underlying rebound,” said Ben Simpfendorfer, RBS economist.
“Strong [factory output] results will be hard to sustain in the second half because of still-weak exports.”
Chinese banks extended Rmb664.5bn ($97.2bn) in new loans in May, up from Rmb591.8bn in April but far below the average Rmb1,520bn lent each month in the first quarter.
The increase took the total amount of new lending so far this year to Rmb5,800bn, higher than the official target of Rmb5,000bn for the entire year.
The government's emphasis on building new infrastructure and on a flood of new bank lending have triggered worries of nascent inflation among some regulatory officials.
In a survey released on Friday by China's central bank, the number of households which said prices were “high and hard to accept” rose to 43.3 per cent in the second quarter, from 26.1 per cent in the first quarter.
The survey also said the number of households which were “comfortable” with their income was at the lowest level since records began in 1999.
Beijing has ordered state-owned enterprises to cut salaries rather than lay off workers and has required all companies to seek approval before firing large numbers of employees.
The government fears widespread unemployment could lead to social unrest. But many officials are more fearful of high inflation, which could spark public protests.
China has experienced mild deflation in consumer and producer prices in recent months. Some economists believe over-capacity in many industries and a collapse in demand for Chinese exports mean the country is at greater risk of a prolonged period of falling prices than of high inflation.
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