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地区视角的东盟，ASEAN in a Regional Perspectiv， 写于April 4; rev. 7/24/96,frankel 和wei合作的系列论文之一。summary：Trade among the ASEAN economies is higher than one would expect, based on their
income levels and other important determinants of bilateral trade. The same is true of trade
within East Asia more broadly (or trade within an ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand grouping).
To the extent that this regional concentration of trade is attributed to formal or informal regional
trading arrangements, they appear to be trade-creating, not trade-diverting.
The rate of increase of trade within ASEAN or within East Asia, however, can be
entirely explained by the rapid growth of the countries. There is nothing left over to attribute to
an intensifying bloc. (Trade among Southeast Asian countries will in the future continue to
grow more rapidly than incomes.) Perhaps the regional concentration, which shows up from
the beginning of the sample period, is not due to formal measures, such as the decision to form
an ASEAN FTA, but rather to a shared trading culture.
The openness of the Indochinese countries, suitably adjusted, was very low in 1992, but
had almost doubled by 1994. If these formerly autarkic countries restore normal trade relations
with the rest of the world over the coming decade, the gravity model predicts that their trade
will expand another seven-fold, in addition to the expansion attributable to growth.
The stock of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a significant determinant of trade. We
find that bilateral FDI can be modelled analogously to bilateral trade. In both cases, there is no
evidence that Japan has accelerated its economic interactions with Southeast Asia, beyond what
can be attributed to simple economic growth rates. Many extensions of the FDI analysis remain
to be done. We hope to be able to model the "flying geese" process.
We accept others' arguments that the ASEAN countries' trade relations with the
industrialized countries are more important than their relations with each other. But we do not
accept the argument that the latter are unimportant. If the ASEAN countries make serious
progress along the path that they have set for themselves under the AFTA, the gains from
increased trade and investment in the area are potentially important. Furthermore, such
progress would give them more of a voice at the global level.
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