验证汇率制度，Verifying Exchange Rate Regimes。by Jeffrey Frankel Harvard University and NBER，Eduardo Fajnzylber University of California, Los Angeles，Sergio Schmukler World Bank，Luis Servén World Bank，发表于May 17, 2000。Abstract：Credibility and transparency are at the core of the current debate on exchange rate regimes. Among the reasons why intermediate regimes have fallen out of favor, a possibly important one is that they are not transparent: it is difficult to verify them. This paper investigates how difficult it is for investors to verify from observable data if the authorities are in fact following the exchange rate regime that they claim to be following. Of the various intermediate regimes, we focus on the case of basket pegs with bands. Statistically, it can take a surprisingly long span of data for an econometrician or an investor to verify whether such a regime is actually in operation. We find thatverification becomes more difficult as the regime’s bands widen and/or more currencies enter in the basket peg. At the other extreme, we also analyze regimes announced as free-floating, and find that in some cases the observed exchange rate data validate theannounced regime.
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