哈佛大学肯尼迪学院教授Frankel的论文之十An Estimate of Currency Unions

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货币区对贸易和经济增长的影响，An Estimate of the Effects of Currency Unions on Trade and Growth，by Jeffrey A. frankel, Andrew K. Rose,发表于June 10, 2000，Abstract：Gravity-based cross-sectional evidence indicates that currency unions stimulate trade as much or more than do free trade areas. Thus currencies are a source of the puzzling home-country bias in trade. This paper extends such findings to estimate the ultimate benefits of currency unions, via trade, in terms of income per capita. We use a large data set of economic and geographic variables for over 200 countries and dependencies to quantify the implications of currency unions for trade and growth, pursuing a two-stage approach. Our estimates at the first stage suggest that a currency union more than triples trade with the partners in question. Moreover, there is no evidence of trade-diversion. Our estimates at the second stage suggest that every one percent increase in trade (relative to GDP) raises income per capita by roughly 1/3 of a percent over a 20-year period. We combine the two estimates to derive a prediction for the effects of currency union on growth. Our results support the hypothesis that the beneficial effects of currency unions on economic performance come specifically through the promotion of trade or other interactions with major trading partners, rather than, as commonly thought, through a commitment to non-inflationary monetary policy, or other macroeconomic influences.

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关键词：estimate currency frankel Unions Franke 论文 学院 哈佛大学 肯尼迪 frankel