Takatoshi Ito的论文之二 A Case for a Coordinated Basket

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亚洲各国货币篮子合作，A Case for a Coordinated Basket for Asian Countries，by Takatoshi Ito，发表于2002，The exchange rate policy is an important pillar for managing macro-economy. It affects both trade and investment. The stability of the exchange rate will promote trade and investment, but it sometimes invites too much capital inflows. The flexibility of the exchange rate is important to make necessary adjustments in response to domestic and external shocks. However, the market sometimes misbehaves and the exchange rates often overshoot or experiences misalignment. The fixed exchange rate with capital mobility may limit the degree of freedom of the monetary policy. The de facto dollar peg was one of the reasons for the Asian currency crisis. When Asian countries pegged to the US dollar, while their exports and imports were diversified, the third currency fluctuations—say, yen depreciation or euro depreciation—have profound effects on their export competitiveness. In general export competitiveness is affected by the fluctuation in the real effective exchange rate. Another problem associated with the fixed exchange rate in an emerging market economy with liberalized capital flows is that borrowers (local corporations and banks) and lenders (foreign banks) of short-term loans do not realize that there should be devaluation risk premium. The under-rated risk makes both lenders and borrowers to behave with moral hazard. Borrowers think that dollar denominated loans is cheaper with lower interest rate than the local currency loans, while lenders think that borrowers, often with high growth performance, are safe and free from default risk. It is only after devaluation that borrowers realize that devaluation makes their debts unsustainable, and that lenders realize that borrowers default in the midst of currency crisis. This is basically what happened in Asia from mid-1990s to the crisis in 1997-98. (See Ito (1999a, 1999b, 2000) for details.)

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关键词：coordinated coordinate Takatoshi basket DINA Takatoshi Ito