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东亚各国的经济相互依存和国际合作，Economic interdependence and international coordination in East Asia，Eiji Ogawa，发表于February 2002。Summary： Although we experienced the Asian currency crisis under the de facto dollar peg system, linkages of East Asian currencies with the US dollar have returned to the pre-crisis situation in recent years. We estimated weights on the US dollar in a possible currency basket for some East Asian countries according to a method of Frankel and Wei (1994). An analytical result shows that some of the East Asian countries have increased the linkages of their home currencies with the dollar in recent years. It is important to consider what factors increased the linkage of East Asian currencies with the dollar again. We can point out that coordination failure in choosing exchange rate system under intra-regional trade competition impede the monetary authorities in adopting optimal currency basket system. We used a two-country model to show that coordination failure in exchange rate policies among the monetary authorities contributed to their keeping the dollar peg system. The monetary authorities tend to adopt the dollar peg system in a case of unstable equilibrium. Moreover, they are faced with coordination failure if they cannot directly shift from the dollar peg system to the optimal exchange rate system, given that the other countries adopt the dollar peg sytem, even though they have a stable equilibrium. We made an empirical analysis to investigate whether the monetary authorities in fact were faced with coordination failure in choosing an optimal exchange rate system among ASEAN5 countries, China, and Korea. The analytical result implies that the ASEAN countries and China are enforced to adopt the dollar peg system because they have an unstable equilibrium or coordination failure in choosing exchange rate system.
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