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The Trouble With Macroeconomics_2016_09_Paul_Romer.pdf
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Abstract: For more than three decades, macroeconomics has gone backwards. The
treatment of identification now is no more credible than in the early 1970s
but escapes challenge because it is so much more opaque. Macroeconomic
theorists dismiss mere facts by feigning an obtuse ignorance about such simple
assertions as "tight monetary policy can cause a recession." Their models
attribute fluctuations in aggregate variables to imaginary causal forces that
are not influenced by the action that any person takes. A parallel with string
theory from physics hints at a general failure mode of science that is triggered
when respect for highly regarded leaders evolves into a deference to authority
that displaces objective fact from its position as the ultimate determinant of
scientific truth.
Paul Romer对二三十年以来identification problem的见解,以及对DSGE的质疑
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