[英文原版书] 地产直接投资风险决策管理

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Risk, uncertainty and decision-making in property development
CONTENT
  Preface
  Preface to the first edition
Chapter 1  Uncertainty, risk and the process of property
development
1.1  Introduction
1.2  The process of property development
1.3  Development appraisal
Chapter 2  Decisions and decision-making
2.1  Introduction
2.2  Decision rules
Chapter 3  Assessing risk and uncertainty
3.1  Introduction
3.2  Probability
3.3  Utility
3.4  Sensitivity and simulation
3.5  Conclusion
Chapter 4  Decision methods in development appraisal
4.1  Introduction
4.2  Analysis using probability distributions
4.3  Probability distributions and time
4.4  Informed approaches to development appraisal
4.5  Conclusion
Chapter 5  Development appraisal the Monte Carlo way
5.1  Introduction
5.2  Case study: general discussion
5.3  Case studies
5.4  Case study conclusions
Chapter 6  Advances in development appraisal simulation
6.1  Introduction
6.2  [email=Using@RISK]Using@RISK[/email]
6.3  @RISK output
6.4  Modelling the interdependence between state variables
6.5  Continuous probability distributions for state variables
6.6  Simulation in the development appraisal process
  Postscript
  Appendix: The characteristics of the normal distribution
  Bibliography
  Index

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