【独家发布】【朝花夕拾-时文即睹】-斯蒂格里茨：特朗普现象从何而来？

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斯蒂格里茨：特朗普现象从何而来
在最近几个星期的环球访问行程中，人们总会问我两个问题：唐纳德·特朗普会有可能赢得美国总统大选吗？他的竞选之路为何能走到今天？
关于第一个问题，虽然预测政治比预测经济更困难，但希拉莉·克林顿的胜算原本是极高的，然而两人的支持率竟能如此接近（至少直到最近）则令人费解：希拉莉是美国最具资格且准备最充分的总统候选人之一，而特朗普却是最不够格且参选最仓促的人之一。此外，尽管特朗普表现出众多出格言行，但其选举之路却依然延续，要是在过去他早就走不下去了。
为什么美国人愿意去玩这么一场特朗普可能拥有六分之一胜选机会的俄罗斯轮盘死亡游戏？美国以外的人都想知道答案，因为虽然他们无从左右大选，但这一结果却会影响他们。
这就为我们带来了第二个问题：美国共和党为什么提名一位连党内领袖都表示反对的候选人？
很明显，有众多因素帮助特朗普击败了另外16位共和党主要挑战者。比如个性就很重要，有些人似乎对特朗普在电视真人秀中所展现的个人形象非常受用。
但几个基本因素似乎也促成了两位候选人势均力敌。首先，许多美国人在经济上确实比他们在四分之一个世纪前更为窘迫。全职男性雇员的收入中位数低于42年前的水平，而对于那些教育程度不高的人来说，找到一份能拿到足额工资的全职工作也越来越难了。
事实上，那些位处收入分配底部群体的实际（扣除通胀因素后）工资，依然停留在约60年前的水平，因此当特朗普指出经济状况不断恶化的时候，他立刻就能找到了一个庞大的听众群体。但问题在于，特朗普对于这一症结的诊断和所开出的处方都是错误的。
美国经济作为一个整体，在过去60年中表现良好：国内生产总值（GDP）增长了近六倍，只是在大规模减税政策之下，这些增长成果落到了位于收入金字塔顶端的一批人手里，比如特朗普，而他还会将此继续延伸和深化下去。
与此同时，政治领导人承诺的将惠及所有人的改革，例如贸易和金融自由化却未能兑现，甚至遥遥无期。于是那些生活水平陷入停滞或衰退的人，就会得出一个简单的结论：美国的政治领导人要么不知道自己在说什么，要么就是在说谎（或者两者兼有）。
特朗普想把美国所有的问题都归罪于贸易和移民，但这是不对的。即使贸易不走向自由化，美国也依然会面临去工业化：由于生产力的增长超过了需求的增长，全球制造业的就业人数一直都是在下降的。
在那些贸易协议失效的领域，并不是美国遭到了贸易伙伴的抛弃；而是因为美国的贸易议程被大企业利益所左右。美国企业的表现一直以来都很好，人们也致力于确保那些因受贸易协定影响而陷入困境的美国人，可以分享发展收益，但这些努力却遭到了共和党人的长期阻挠。
因此，许多美国人感觉自己受到了超出他们控制之外的力量的冲击，并导致了明显不公平的结果。一直存在于人们心中的那种“美国是个充满机会的热土，每一代人都比上一代人活得更好”的图景，也因此遭到了质疑 。
对许多选民来说，全球金融危机可能是一个转折点：他们的政府营救了那些使美国陷入破产边缘的富有银行家，对失去工作和家园的数百万普通美国人则似乎弃之不顾，该体系不仅产生了不公平的结果，而且似乎是故意被操纵去这样做的。
对特朗普的支持至少在部分程度上，是基于对政府失去信任而产生的广泛愤怒。然而特朗普所提出的政策，会使情况变得更为糟糕。如他所承诺的，他那套滴流经济学（trickle-down economics）如果再施行一轮，给几乎所有美国富裕阶层和大企业都进一步削减税负，可以肯定效果会和上一次尝试一样，好不到哪里去。
事实上，如按照特朗普所扬言的，发动针对中国、墨西哥和其他美国贸易伙伴的贸易战，将令所有美国人更贫穷，并为解决如伊斯兰国、全球恐怖主义及气候变化等问题的全球合作，制造新的障碍。使用本可投资于技术、教育或基础设施的资金，在美国和墨西哥之间建一堵墙，就是一种两败俱伤的浪费资源方式。
美国政治精英们应该从此接收到了两个信息。首先，在过去40年中塑造了多项经济政策，简单化的新自由市场原教旨主义理论，是存在严重误导性的，而国内生产总值（GDP）的增长，正是以不平等状况的恶化为代价。滴流经济学理论无论在过去还是将来都不会发生作用。市场不存在于真空中。撒切尔－里根“革命”重写规则和重组了市场，只造福了社会顶端阶层，极大地增加了不平等，但它促进增长的使命彻彻底底以失败告终。
这就引出了第二个信息：我们需要重写经济的规则，以确保普通公民能够受益。任何无视这一教训的美国和他国政治家，将为此付出代价。变革意味着风险，但特朗普现象以及欧洲出现的几个类似的政治走向，揭示出如果不注意这一信息，将带来更大的风险，即社会分裂，民主败坏，经济走弱。
作者Joseph E Stiglitz是诺贝尔经济学奖得主，哥伦比亚大学教授，罗斯福研究所首席经济学家。他的最新著作是《欧元：共同货币是如何威胁欧洲的未来》（The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe）。
英文原题：How Trump Happened；版权所有：Project Syndicate, 2016.转自：http://www.zaobao.com/forum/views/opinion/story20161029-683765

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关键词：斯蒂格里茨 朝花夕拾 格里茨 特朗普 诺贝尔经济学奖得主 美国共和党 美国总统 俄罗斯 朝花夕拾 总统候选人

某有脑没长心的人工智能预测床铺赢过希拉里？-http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai ... -win-104022784.html
An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the last three U.S. presidential elections puts Republican nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House.
MogIA was developed by Sanjiv Rai, founder of Indian start-up Genic.ai. It takes in 20 million data points from public platforms including Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the U.S. and then analyzes the information to create predictions.
The AI system was created in 2004, so it has been getting smarter all the time. It had already correctly predicted the results of the Democratic and Republican Primaries.
Data such as engagement with tweets or Facebook Live videos have been taken into account. The result is that Trump has overtaken the engagement numbers of Barack Obama 's peak in 2008 — the year he was elected president — by 25 percent.
Rai said that his AI system shows that the candidate in each election who had leading engagement data ended up winning the election.
"If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years since Internet engagement began in full earnest," Rai wrote in a report sent to CNBC.
Currently most national polls put Clinton and the Democrats ahead by a strong margin. Rai said his data shows that Clinton should not get complacent.
But the entrepreneur admitted that there were limitations to the data in that sentiment around social media posts is difficult for the system to analyze. Just because somebody engages with a Trump tweet, it doesn't mean that they support him. Also there are currently more people on social media than there were in the three previous presidential elections.
"If you look at the primaries, in the primaries, there were immense amounts of negative conversations that happen with regards to Trump. However, when these conversations started picking up pace, in the final days, it meant a huge game opening for Trump and he won the primaries with a good margin," Rai told CNBC in a phone interview.
Using social media to predict outcomes of elections has become increasingly popular because of the amount of data available publicly. In September, Nick Beauchamp, an assistant professor of political science at Northeastern University, published a paper about his experiment applying AI to more than 100 million tweets in the 2012 election. He found that this closely mirrored the results seen in state-level polling.
"These results provide not just a tool for generating surveylike data, but also a method for investigating how what people say and think reflects, and perhaps even affects, their vote intentions," Beauchamp said.
Rai said his system would be improved by more granular data. He said that If Google was to give him access to the unique internet addresses assigned to each digital device, he could then collect data on exactly what people were thinking.
For example, Rai said if someone was searching for a YouTube video on how to vote, then looked for a video on how to vote for Trump, this could give the AI a good idea of the voter's intention. He added that there would be no privacy concerns as these internet addresses would be anonymized.
"Granularity of data will determine progressively lesser bias despite the weightage of negative or positive conversations," Rai wrote in his report, explaining how to improve the system.
MogIA is based on Mowgli, the child from Rudyard Kipling's novel "The Jungle Book." Rai said this is because his AI model learns from the environment.
"While most algorithms suffer from programmers/developer's biases, MoglA aims at learning from her environment, developing her own rules at the policy layer and develop expert systems without discarding any data," Rai said.
Correction: MogIA is based on Mowgli from the novel "The Jungle Book." An earlier version misspelled the character's name.

fumingxu 发表于 2016-10-29 08:49
斯蒂格里茨：特朗普现象从何而来
在最近几个星期的环球访问行程中，人们总会问我两个问题：唐纳德·特朗普 ...

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