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雷达卡
Is Chinese Restocking Over?
Commodities | Australia
• Reuters (29/6/09) has reported on an article in China's Caijing
magazine, quoting a National Development and Reform Commission
(NDRC) official as saying that China's State Reserves Bureau (SRB) has
finished stockpiling of key commodities for the time being.
• The article reported that the recent additions to state reserves for key
base metals have been as follows:
- Aluminium - 590,000 tonnes.
- Copper - 235,000 tonnes
- Zinc - 159,000 tonnes.
• The article commented that Chinese officials were surprised that the
biggest beneficiaries of the stockpiling policy had been "market
intermediaries" and not the Chinese enterprises that it was intended to
support. We note that China's imports of aluminium, copper, and zinc
all surged to record levels in recent months, partly because of the
stockpiling policy; therefore international metal producers also belong on
the list of key beneficiaries.
• The article (or rather the Reuters reporting of it) did not mention iron
ore or coal, although we do not believe that these commodities have
been stockpiled by the government.
• We have maintained for some time that China's level of imports of base
metals in recent months is quite simply unsustainable. In our opinion
investors should avoid an overly negative reaction to this story, or to the
likelihood (in our view) of weaker import data in the months to come.
Such data will not indicate that China's economy - or its consumption of
metals - is slowing down again; it will simply be the consequence of a
price-sensitive stockpiling policy.
• We remain of the view that base metals prices are due a pull-back
in the short term, to which weaker Chinese import data would
undoubtedly contribute. But we would use such a pull-back as an
opportunity to move to an overweight resources position with a
view to absolute and relative outperformance on a 12-month time-
frame.
高盛证券—中国的库存回补是否已经结束.pdf
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