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Global Metals Playbook – 3Q09
Short-term Caution,
Medium-term Optimism
Research
Global
􀂃 Although short-term risks to the recent rally in industrial and precious metals
have increased, as seasonal factors and an end to Chinese re-stocking could
trigger profit-taking after the recent strong gains, medium-term drivers of
recovery are drawing on:
􀂃 China’s domestic growth recovery, which continues to widen and deepen, even though
external demand remains very weak;
􀂃 Leading indicators of global industrial production such as the global PMI, which have
started to reverse the strong downtrend that became evident in H2 2007;
􀂃 Supply constraints, which persist for a number of commodities as a result of industry
discipline, despite recent increases in price and declines in cost;
􀂃 Unprecedented global fiscal and monetary policy stimulus, which is expected to remain
in place well into 2010, despite some nascent inflationary concerns;
􀂃 Further cyclical weakness in the US dollar, despite recent indications that the US
currency is oversold in the short term;
􀂃 A progressive resurgence in fund flows and asset allocations into commodities.
􀂃 Short-term profit-taking would, therefore, provide an attractive re-entry point
to a strengthening recovery in industrial metals. However, the early and
fragile nature of the current macro environment prompts us to be selective
about commodity exposures for now:
􀂃 In base metals, our preferred exposure is copper, with short-term downside price risk
providing a new entry point after the recent strong rally;
􀂃 In bulk commodities, our preferred exposure is to the metallurgical and thermal coal
markets, as China’s sustained appetite for imports is set to reverse the recent supply
overhang and price weakness;
􀂃 In precious metals, we have upgraded our forecast for platinum, consistent with the
recovery profile in industrial produ
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