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After housing previously surprised to the upside, activity is now peaking Commencements dropped to a 220k a.r. in Q3-16, the lowest since 2014, & recent approvals trended down to ~210k. Indeed, a multi-decade low commencements-toapprovals ratio for multi's suggests developer caution and/or tighter credit. Hence, we trim our commencements forecast to 200k (was 205k) in 2017, with a further retracement to 180k in 2018e. With renovations also turning weaker, we cut dwelling investment to flat in 2017e (was +3%), before dropping 8% in 2018e (subtracting ½%pt from GDP). This reduces overall real GDP to 2.7% in both 2017e and 2018e.
20170125-UBS-Australian Economic Perspectives：Housing Outlook-How Much of A Dow.pdf
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