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Event: the CPB trade data release: global volume and price indices for January. The CPB provide consistent seasonally-adjusted volume/price break-outs.
World export growth has picked up moderately, from -0.8% YoY (January 2016) to +3.9% YoY (November 2016, +3.1% YoY in both December 2016 and January 2017), broadly in line with the global industrial production recovery (a nadir of +0.3% YoY in November 2015 to +3.1% YoY in December 2016).
Seasonally adjusted, January was -0.7% month-on-month, with December +1.0% MoM (upper chart below). The export price indices are in the process of swinging from heavily negative to neutral (lower chart below).
20170327-Macquarie-A Global Macro Deep Dive：Global Trade in Goods.pdf
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