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Based on industry level information, we estimate what a “balanced” RMB depreciation would be if the US starts to implement a border tax adjustment (BTA) along with its tax reforms. While the discussion is largely based on the proposal outlined by the US House Speaker Paul Ryan in A Better Way, the same method can be applied to assessing other tax and trade reforms as well.
We find that if the US cuts its current CIT to 20% and then replaces it with a destination-based cash flow tax (DBCFT), the RMB would need to depreciate 5.8-13.7% vs. the dollar to offset the impact on China’s trade balance with the US. If currencies of other countries also move to keep their respective trade balances with the US unchanged, the implied depreciation of RMB vs. the CFETS basket (excl. USD) would be around 2.2-2.4%.
20170328-Deutsche Bank-The Risk of De-Globalization 2：US Border Tax Adjustment .pdf
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