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求助！！关于legend	SAS专版	Inanono 2012-12-4	7 7872	莫祈缘Hope 2017-3-2 22:20:18
求助两篇文献，可能第一篇墙外的同学可以下载 - [!reward_solved!]	求助成功区	jdzz 2014-4-7	6 997	giresse 2014-4-7 15:42:33
转载：财务人员须深思的三个问题来源	休闲灌水	英胜集团 2013-11-16	0 813	英胜集团 2013-11-16 12:45:07
中国人离婚只为房产避税？	真实世界经济学(含财经时事)	sunset1986 2013-10-31	0 931	sunset1986 2013-10-31 10:08:14
gravity and gravitas: a solution to the border puzzle - [!reward_solved!]	求助成功区	huolei521 2013-7-2	1 1005	xllbl 2013-7-2 23:07:13
库克专访：苹果遇到麻烦了吗？	行业分析报告	caozisimon 2013-6-3	0 1259	caozisimon 2013-6-3 17:50:31
屠光绍治下的汇金系券商猜想	真实世界经济学(含财经时事)	yiuyiutiandi 2013-5-20	0 893	yiuyiutiandi 2013-5-20 20:59:23
押注中国经济硬着陆的交易再度兴起	宏观经济学	caozisimon 2013-5-20	1 1183	bangfu999 2013-5-20 18:58:28
中国坏账重获投资者青睐	宏观经济学	caozisimon 2013-2-12	3 1473	我系超仔 2013-2-12 12:37:50
李宁盈利重挫全年预亏上半年关店1200间	行业分析报告	caozisimon 2012-8-25	1 1690	mazhanshu 2012-8-25 02:16:01
请liuzhenzhu版主回答为何删除我的免费报告	行业分析报告	industrial 2012-3-15	5 1955	有无之境 2012-3-21 23:07:06

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分享 Kenya bus attack near Somali border leaves 28 dead: 912726421 2014-11-22 18:54; Suspected members of the Somali militant group al-Shabab have killed at least 28 people in an attack on a bus in northern Kenya, officials say. The bus was travelling to the capital, Nairobi, when it was stopped in Mandera county, near the Somali border. After taking it off the road, gunmen separated out those they thought were non-Muslim before killing them, officials said. Somalia-based al-Shabab has been mounting attacks in Kenya since 2011. That was the year when Kenya sent troops to Somalia to help fight the Islamist militia. Mandera, a remote area in Kenya's north east, has been one of the regions affected. Kenya's interior ministry said on its Twitter feed that the bus attacked early on Saturday had been carrying 60 passengers. One official told Kenya's Daily Nation newspaper that assailants had asked passengers to read out verses of the Koran, before executing those who failed.; 17 次阅读|0 个评论

分享 "Housing" - Is It Really Recovering?: insight 2013-9-6 11:21; "Housing" - Is It Really Recovering? Details Written by Lance Roberts | Friday, July 26, 2013 Tweet in Share a.cmp_shareicontextlink { text-decoration: none; line-height: 20px;height: 20px; color: #3B5998; font-size: 11px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; padding:2px 4px 2px 20px; border:1px solid #CAD4E7; cursor: pointer; background:url(//static.ak.facebook.com/images/share/facebook_share_icon.gif?6:26981) no-repeat 1px 1px #ECEEF5; -webkit-border-radius: 3px; -moz-border-radius: 3px;} .cmp_shareicontextlink:hover { background:url(//static.ak.facebook.com/images/share/facebook_share_icon.gif?6:26981) no-repeat 1px 1px #ECEEF5 !important; border-color:#9dacce !important; color: #3B5998 !important;} Share There has been much hoped placed on the "housing recovery story" over the last couple of years as it relates to the economy. With each passing month all eyes have been glued to television screens, and headlines, as the latest estimations of housing starts, completions, new and existing home sales, etc. are trumpeted as a sign of a renewed housing cycle. This is no trivial matter as real estate is seen as a bedrock to economic strength as much as it is the sign of achievement of the "American Dream." It is true that in past housing was a large contributor to the strength of economic growth in the U.S. The same was true for automobile manufacturing. The building of homes and cars increased economic output and the multiplier effect through the economy was large. However, due to the shift in the makeup of the U.S. economy, housing is no longer the contributor to the economy it once was. The chart below shows the percentage that housing and automobile manufacturing contributes to U.S. gross domestic product. At less than 3% the impact of increases in residential construction is very small relative to exports, which comprises roughly 40% of corporate profits, and Equipment Software spending which has increased worker productivity and lowered costs. At The Margin The problem with all of the analysis each month on the transactional side of housing is that it only represents what is happening at the "margin." Housing is more than just the relatively few number of individuals, as compared to the total population, that are actively seeking to buy, rent or sell a home each month. In order to really understand what is happening in terms of "housing" we must analyze the "housing market" as a whole rather than what is just happening at the fringes. For this analysis we can use the data published by the U.S. Census Bureau which can be found here . Total Housing Units In an economy that is 70% driven by consumption it is grossly important that the working age population is, well, working. More importantly, as discussed in "Obama's Economic Report Card:" "Full-time, benefit providing, employment is the only type of employment that matters for the average American. Full-time employment allows for an increasing standard of living, household formation, and higher personal savings rates." To present some context for the following analysis we must first have some basis from which to work from. Our baseline for this analysis will be the number of total housing units which, as of Q1-2013, was 133,082,000 units. The chart below shows the historical progression of the seasonally adjusted number of housing units in the United States. As an example, the most recent report of "existing home sales" showed that 5,080,000 homes were sold on an annualized basis in June. Since this is an annualized number we must divide it by 12 months for the estimated seasonally adjusted number of sales in June which was 423,333 homes. This number of home sales represents just 0.3% of the total number of homes available. This is what I mean by "activity at the margin." When put into this frame of reference the "existing home sales" report doesn't seem nearly as exciting. Vacancy Rate Out of the total number of housing units some are vacant for a variety of reasons. They are second homes for some people that are only used occasionally. They are being held off market for one reason or another (foreclosure, short sell, etc.) , or they are for sale or rent. The chart below shows the total number of homes, as a percentage of the total number of housing units which are currently vacant. If a real housing recovery was underway the vacancy rate should be falling sharply rather than rising in the latest quarter and hovering only 0.5% below it's all-time peak levels. Owner Occupied Housing Another sign that a "real" housing recovery was underway would be an increase in actual home ownership. The chart below shows the number of owner occupied houses as a percentage of the total number of housing units available. Despite the Federal Reserve flooding the system with liquidity, suppressing interest rates and the current Administration's efforts to bailout banks and homeowners, owner occupied housing is at it lows. Home Ownership Th e simple reality is that there has really been very little actual recovery in housing, and as shown in the first chart above, which explains its weak contribution to economic growth. The chart of home ownership really shows the lack of recovery the best. At 65% the current level of home ownership is the lowest that it has been since the early 1980's. However, the recent reports of sales, starts, permits, and completions have all certainly improved in recent months. Those transactions must be showing up somewhere, right? REO To Rent While the Federal Reserve and the current Administration have tried a litany of programs to jump start the housing market nothing has worked as well as the "REO to Rent" program. With Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, and the banks loaded with delinquent and vacant properties, the idea was to sell huge blocks of properties to institutional investors to be put out as rentals. This has worked very well. The chart below shows the number of homes that are renter occupied versus the seasonally adjusted home ownership rate. Do you see the potential problem here? Speculators have flooded the market with a majority of the properties being paid for in cash and then turned into rentals. As this activity drives the prices of homes higher, reduces inventory and increases rental rates - it prices out "first time homebuyers" who would become longer term home owners. The problem is that when the herd of speculative buyers turn into mass sellers - there will not be a large enough pool of qualified buyers to absorb the inventory which will lead to a sharp reversion in prices. Maybe this is why the Federal Reserve, and the FDIC, are looking to relax the regulation put in place after the last housing bubble which required banks to have "skin in the game." By removing that restriction banks can now go back to providing mortgages to unqualified buyers, pool them and sell them off to unwitting investors. Haven't we watched this movie before? While the surge in housing activity, which still remains at historically low levels as shown in the chart below, has certainly been welcome it should not be forgotten that it has taken massive bailouts, stimulus and financial supports to induce such relatively small amounts of activity. The mistake, however, as I addressed in "Housing Recovery, What Has Been Forgotten" is that: "There is no argument that housing has improved from the depths of the housing crash in 2010. However, while the housing market remains at very recessionary levels, recent analysis assumes that this has been a natural, and organic, recovery . Nothing could be further from the truth as analysts have somehow forgotten the trillions of dollars, and regulatory support, infused to generate that recovery. I recently penned an article showing the $30 trillion, and counting, that has been thrown at the economy, and financial system, to keep it afloat over the last 4 years. Of that, trillions of dollars have been directly focused at the housing markets including HAMP, HARP, mortgage write downs, delayed foreclosures, government backed settlements of 'fraud-closure' issues, debt forgiveness and direct buying of mortgage bonds by the Fed to drive refinancing and purchase rates lower. Of course, the Fed has also maintained its ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) during this same period with a pledge to keep it there until at least 2015. The point here is that while the housing market has recovered - the media should be asking ' Is that all the recovery there is?' More importantly, why are economists, and analysts, not asking the question of 'What happens to the housing market when the various support programs end?' With 30-year mortgage rates below 4% we should be in the middle of the next housing bubble - not crawling along a bottoming process." The housing recovery is ultimately a story of the "real" unemployment situation which still shows that roughly a quarter of the home buying cohort are unemployed and living at home with their parents. The remaining members of the home buying, household formation, contingent are employed but at lower ends of the pay scale and are choosing to rent due to budgetary considerations. As I stated previously the optimism over the housing recovery has gotten well ahead of the underlying fundamentals. While the belief was that the Government, and Fed's, interventions would ignite the housing market creating an self-perpetuating recovery in the economy - it did not turn out that way. Instead it led to a speculative rush into buying rental properties creating a temporary, and artificial, inventory suppression. The risks to the housing story remains high due to the impact of higher taxes, stagnant wage growth, re-defaults of the 6-million modifications and workouts and a slowdown of speculative investment due to reduced profit margins. While there are many hopes pinned on the housing recovery as a "driver" of economic growth in 2013 and beyond - the data suggests that it might be quite a bit of wishful thinking.; 个人分类: real estate|21 次阅读|0 个评论

分享美国的大学生债务危机: insight 2012-6-9 13:03; 　美国的大学生债务危机　(2012-06-05) fieldset { width: 306px; border: 1px solid #990000; align: center; } legend { font-family: Arial,"宋体"; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; color: #990000; } 美国总统大选年的激烈党争和同时的欧元危机，彰显了西方世界的共同痼疾——日益失控的公共债务。在此之外，私人债务同样是个严重问题。美国次级房贷引发的房产泡沫破灭以来，被债不抵产的房贷压得透不过气来的1000多万“溺水”房主，成为奥巴马ZF十分棘手的内政挑战。　　美国大选年中，另类债务危机也日渐浮出水面，这便是为了获得高等教育而举借的学生贷款，据《纽约时报》报道，大学生贷款总额已经超过1万亿（trillion）美元的天文数字，大致相当于近10年伊拉克战争的全部费用。而且这一危机可谓“公私兼顾”：欠债的是为了上大学的个人，在恶化的经济和就业环境下，近四分之一无法还债而赖账。另一方面，近90%的学生贷款债主是联邦ZF。为了缓和大学生债务压力，势必要增高联邦ZF已经岌岌可危的债台。　　学生债务危机直接关系到美国当前的头号政治争议——日益加剧的社会两极分化，以及下层阶级社会上升机会的急剧减少。对绝大多数美国人来说，大学教育代表了进入或保持中产阶级地位的唯一途径。大学以上学位持有人，与只受过中学教育的人的收入差距超过了两倍，还在不断增加。　　但是美国高等教育费用飞涨，却远远超过通货膨胀和工资增长，尤其是原来收费低廉、学生人数占全国大半的公立大学，因为地方ZF不断削减教育开支，不得不大幅度提高学费，严重加剧了中下层子弟入学的负担。《纽约时报》6月1日报道：包括世界名校伯克莱在内的加州大学系统，面临最新一轮经费裁减和学费增长，连中产阶级家庭都难以负担。奥巴马五年前的爱荷华州初选演讲也提到：10年来有200万美国学生因为高涨的费用，被排除在大学门外。　　1993年，美国大学毕业生只有45%借钱读书，今天却达到94%，亦即每百名毕业生中，只有六个不借债，其他人均负债2万多美元，一成以上超过5万美元。这些至少还是获得了学位的幸运者。据《华盛顿邮报》报道，近三成贷款学生最后被迫放弃大学学业，白欠了一屁股还不清的债。教育不高者偏向支持共和党　　　　　　缓解绝大多数大学生日益严重的上学债务，以维持社会上升机会的公平性，自然成为大选年的一个重要题目。美国国会目前正在争论的一项议案，便是由联邦ZF长期提供低利率学生贷款。　　可是这项议案却遭到许多保守派的反对。例如《华盛顿邮报》的大牌专栏作家乔治威尔便相当准确地指出：上述议案是ZF动用所有纳税人的钱，补助那些进得了大学的人，使得他们毕业后赚取的收入高出未受大学教育者一倍，实际上是“劫贫济富”。　　自由派则反驳说：高等教育是美国经济竞争力的关键，如果没有ZF资助，那么穷人会更加没有上大学的机会，而世代停留在社会低层。统计数据表明，这是美国正在固化的世袭社会现象：收入最高四分之一阶层，82%的子女有大学学位，而最低四分之一底层，只有6%的子女完成高等教育。　　这场争论在大选年还有重要的政治意义。大量民调披露，在依旧占选民多数的美国白人中，共和党的支持率与教育程度成反比，尤其是被自由主义“洗脑”的大学以上毕业生，明显倾向民主党，而没有受到大学教育的蓝领白人，今天是共和党的草根中坚。　　蓝领白人在后工业化社会竞争中日渐沉沦，而产生一种酸葡萄味的强烈反精英主义。茶党偏爱的候选人桑托勒姆，曾经指责奥巴马提倡人人都应上大学是“势利眼”，非常说明这种心理。在种族主义残余下，茶党白人认为联邦ZF是在用他们的税款，资助像奥巴马那样的少数民族精英。　　大选年政治之外，大学生债务危机还反映了美国社会的“智商异化”和教育异化：社会地位的延续不在于金钱财产的继承，而在于通过金钱来保证下一代的“教育资产”。哥伦比亚大学一位专家月前在《纽约时报》披露：按照美国最通行的“高考”SAT（满分2400的标准化考试）成绩，家庭年收入2万美元以下考生的平均总分约为1320，家庭年收入20万美元以上的平均总分是1700。有过美国大学经历的人，都会知道收入与考分这种密切关系，对高等教育机会和学校档次的关键作用。　　根据各种报道，大学费用和上学债务，也正在成为中国农村和低收入子弟社会上升机会的重大障碍，加剧了两极分化和世袭化趋势。美国的学生债务危机应该引起北京反省。　　作者在北美从事科研工作; 56 次阅读|0 个评论

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