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UBS的Europe Economic Comment：
Emmanuel Macron beats Marine Le Pen in second round
With an estimated share of 65.8% of votes according to projections at 9pm CET, Emmanuel Macron seems to have won the second round of the French presidential election against Marine Le Pen, who obtained 34.2%. If confirmed, this result is more favourable for Macron than prior opinion polls, which had indicated a 62-38 lead for him over Marine Le Pen. Voter participation was estimated at 74.7%, the lowest since 1969. Macron will now be inaugurated as the next President of France, at the latest on Sunday 14 May.
What comes next?
The usual procedure after prior presidential elections is that the new President appoints a new interim Prime Minister ahead of the parliamentary elections in mid-June. Depending on the outcome of the parliamentary elections, this new government would either stay in power after the elections (if the President's party obtains a majority in parliament) or step down (or be brought down by a vote of no confidence by the new parliament). Opinion polls for the parliamentary elections (which will be held in two rounds on June 11 and 18 across 577 constituencies (see Figure 1 for details)) will soon become available and will be key to watch. Three outcomes seem possible: (1) an outright win by Macron's En Marche! movement or a coalition government led by En Marche!, (2) a cohabitation whereby another party such as Les Republicains wins a majority, or (3) a minority government. Macron's pro-reform agenda (see Figure 2) would likely face the least resistance under scenario (1) and the most resistance under scenario (2). Under scenario (3) he would likely have to find different majorities for individual reforms.
20170507-UBS-France：Macron to Be Next President.pdf
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