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雷达卡
Dragons and phoenixes–cities with strong home price growth.In this report，we provide in-depth analysis of housing demand being driven by the 250mmigrant workers in China.We use this approach because conventional property market driverssuch as policy direction and credit conditions are already well understood by the market butmigration-driven housing demand，as it is more sustainable，is a longer-term driver of thehousing market.We explore the factors that are driving the mass internal movement of peopleacross the country，and the correlations between these factors and home prices.In doing so，we turn our attention away from tier-1 cities and forecasting overall home prices to studying thefundamental drivers of core housing demand in China and identifying the tier-2 and -3 citiesbest positioned to benefit from them.
Much like the phoenix in Chinese mythology，which symbolizes prosperity and the start ofa new era，we see these smaller cities bringing in a new phase of property price growth in Chinaas housing demand spills over from the major metropolises.This trend became evident lastyear，when rampant home price growth in four tier-2 cities attracted wide media attention.Dubbed the‘four little dragons’，Hefei，Nanjing，Xiamen and Suzhou saw home pricessurge by an average of 30% in 2016，outpacing the 20% average increase in Beijing，Guangzhou，Shanghai and Shenzhen.In our view，the 20‘phoenix cities’that we identify in thisreport are best positioned to benefit from a continuation of this trend.
20170606-HSBC-CHINA_REAL_ESTATE：CATCHING_PHOENIXES-210893.pdf
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