It is one of the most striking economic puzzles of our times:why,when unemployment rates are near historic lows in so many parts of the western world,is wage growth so sluggish and inflation so subdued?Take Japan:wages there actually fell in the first quarter,even as the jobless rate was dropping towards its lowest level since 1994.In the US,unemployment has fallen to a 16-year low–but average earnings are only growing by 2.5% a year and the core PCE inflation rate is just 1.6%.Economic textbooks say this should not happen.But understanding the conundrum is crucial both because of what low wage growth and low inflation mean for monetary policy,and also because of the challenge to government policies,particularly from increased labour market polarisation and wider income inequality.
20170622-HSBC-GLOBAL_ECONOMICS:THE_WAGE_CONUNDRUM-645393.pdf
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