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英文文献：Predicting Watershed Ecosystems Through Targeted Local Land Use Policies-通过有针对性的当地土地使用政策预测流域生态系统
英文文献作者：Langpap, Christian,Hascic, Ivan,Wu, JunJie
英文文献摘要：
Land-use change is arguably the most pervasive socioeconomic force driving the change and degradation of watershed ecosystems. This paper combines an econometric model of land use choice with three models of watershed health indicators (conventional water pollution, toxic water pollution, and the number of aquatic species at risk) to examine the effects of land use policies on watershed ecosystems through their effect on land use choice. The analysis is conducted using parcel-level data from four western states in the United States (California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho). Our results suggest that incentive-based local land use policies, such as development impact fees and preferential property taxation, are most effective in improving water quality and decreasing the number of species at risk if targeted according to the current land use mix in the watersheds, while policies that attempt to change the returns to agricultural and forest land, such as reforestation payments or agricultural subsidies, are ineffective in any watershed.
土地利用变化可以说是推动流域生态系统变化和退化的最普遍的社会经济力量。本文将土地利用选择的计量模型与流域健康指标(常规水污染、有毒水污染和濒危水生物种数量)三种模型相结合，从土地利用政策对流域生态系统选择的影响来考察土地利用政策对流域生态系统的影响。该分析使用了来自美国西部四个州(加利福尼亚州、俄勒冈州、华盛顿州和爱达荷州)的包裹级数据。我们的研究结果表明,激发动机的当地土地使用政策,如发展影响费用和房地产税收优惠,是最有效的改善水质和风险减少的物种数量如果有针对性的根据当前土地利用混合水域,而政策,企图改变回到农业和森林,植树造林等支付或农业补贴,在任何分水岭是无效的。
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