发帖
雷达卡
The global expansion is chugging along, with an improved eurozone outlook in particular; deflation fears and near-term political risks look to have faded; and financial market volatility is subdued. We believe this provides fertile ground for modest gains in risk assets such as equities. Our key views:
• Outlook debate: a mid-June gathering of some 90 BlackRock portfolio managers and executives featured vigorous debates on the drivers of low volatility, how to think about valuations and the outlook for monetary policy and markets. We dissected key risks such as a snapback in government bond yields, discussed how poor trading liquidity could aggravate any sell-offs in frothy pockets of credit markets, and concluded that worries over a China slowdown are overstated in the near term.
• Themes: we see the world in a synchronised and sustained economic expansion that is slower than previous cycles. We believe structurally lower growth and interest rates mean that comparing valuation metrics to past levels may not be a good guide to the future. We see low volatility as a normal feature of the benign economic and financial backdrop – and not as a warning sign in itself. Taken together, this could mean equities are cheaper than they look – and investors may run the risk of being under-risked.
• Market views: we prefer equities over fixed income, and credit over government bonds. In equities we generally prefer European, Japanese and emerging market (EM) stocks over their more expensive US counterparts. We see room for the momentum style factor and the technology sector to outperform further, albeit with potential for swift reversals. We also like the value style factor and selected financials. In fixed income, we like higher-quality credit and generally prefer inflation-linked bonds over nominal ones. We also see opportunities in selected EM debt.
Mid-Year 2017-BlackRock-Global Investment Outlook.pdf
(2.03 MB, 需要: 2 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
