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While we expect China to continue tightening to manage financial stability risks, we believe that the adverse impact on China’s growth trend and that on EM ex China (EMXC) growth will be much more moderate than that seen in 2013-15. Notwithstanding the slowdown in China, we expect EM growth to accelerate to above-trend growth of 4.7%Y in 2017 and 5.0%Y in 2018, from 4.2%Y in 2016.
Macro-stability indicators to stay in check even as growth accelerates
The EM policy mix is improving, with an adequate level of real rates, tightening fiscal policy and adjustment in wage growth in line with real output. We expect inflation, current account and debt dynamics to remain in a comfortable range as GDP growth recovers. This favourable macro dynamic is even reflected in improving productivity of incremental credit.
Limited monetary easing ahead, fiscal policy to stay on tightening path
We only expect a few major EM central banks to cut rates over the next six months (i.e., Russia, Brazil, South Africa), with overall less easing in the pipeline than at the beginning of the year. In Asia ex Japan, we expect policy rates to remain broadly stable. Fiscal deficits have narrowed to some extent and should improve further with stronger GDP growth and higher tax revenues.
Key risks to watch
While EM macro fundamentals are much better today as compared to 2013-15, four risks bear watching: (1) US policy – the pace of monetary tightening and protectionist measures; (2) China – aggressive tightening post 19th party congress; (3) Idiosyncratic political risks in EM; and (4) Geopolitical risks.
20170809-MORGAN_STANLEY-EM_ECONOMICS_PLAYBOOK：EM_RECOVERY_GAINING_MOMENTUM-003979.pdf
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