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Although we agree brewers’margins could ultimately expand after the expected industry consolidation，we think competition in the industry could intensify before this，given that the market is still fragmented from a provincial perspective.Meanwhile，our provincial analysis indicates that not all M&A create positive synergies.In 2017，rising raw material and logistics costs should also pressure margins.For CRB，we think the current valuation at 15x EV/EBITDA already factors in the benefits of M&A and industry margin expansion，while ignoring near-term margin pressure.We downgrade CRB to Hold.
20170809-DEUTSCHE_BANK-CHINA_BREWERS：TOO_EARLY_TO_CHEER；DOWNGRADING_CRB_TO_HOL.pdf
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