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its own future or for global investment strategies.
For almost 25 years, Japan’s debt burden has been the poster child of what
would happen to others if capital is misallocated, bubbles burst and then
clearance and required reforms are either delayed or not implemented. Indeed,
at more than 5x GDP, Japan is shouldering a greater debt burden than other key
jurisdictions. It is also facing severe demographic challenges, while its labour
market remains constrained and the state maintains a sway over the private
sector. Since WW II, Japan has always been more statist than most other major
economies, with Korea and China subsequently following Japan in developing a
similar model. The conventional argument has been that Japan’s debt would
ultimately crush its economy and severely crimp public sector spending, while
the private sector would be unable to adjust, and hence lose competitiveness.
Eventually, the private sector might lose confidence and stop repatriating cash
and the country would then suffer from massive capital outflows.
庞大债务为何没有压垮日本？-麦格理-日本宏观-20170923-Macquarie-What caught my eye.pdf
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