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英文文献：Longevity forecasting by socio-economic groups using compositional data analysis-社会经济群体使用成分数据分析的寿命预测
英文文献作者：S?ren Kj?rgaard,Yunus Emre Ergemen,Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher,Jim Oeppen,Malene Kallestrup-Lamb
英文文献摘要：
Several OECD countries have recently implemented an automatic link between the statutory retirement age and life expectancy for the total population to insure sustainability in their pension systems when life expectancy is increasing. Significant mortality differentials are observed across socio-economic groups and future changes in these differentials will determine whether some socio-economic groups drive increases in the retirement age leaving other groups with fewer years in receipt of pensions. We forecast life expectancy by socio-economic groups and compare the forecast performance of competing models using Danish mortality data and find that the most accurate model assumes a common mortality trend. Life expectancy forecasts are used to analyse the consequences of a pension system where the statutory retirement age is increased when total life expectancy is increasing
几个经合发组织国家最近在总人口的法定退休年龄和预期寿命之间建立了自动联系，以确保在预期寿命增加时其养恤金制度的可持续性。在各个社会经济群体中观察到显著的死亡率差异，这些差异的未来变化将决定一些社会经济群体是否推动退休年龄的提高，从而使其他群体获得养恤金的年限减少。我们根据社会经济群体预测预期寿命，并使用丹麦死亡率数据比较竞争模型的预测效果，发现最准确的模型假设了共同的死亡率趋势。预期寿命预测是用来分析养老金制度的后果，即当总预期寿命增加时，法定退休年龄增加
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