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China in the World Economy Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles.pdf
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Jarko Fidrmuc and Ivana Bátorová
Abstract
We analyse the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992
and 2006. We show that, although negative correlation dominates for nearly all
countries, we can also see large differences for various frequencies of cyclical
developments. On the one hand, nearly all OECD countries show positive correlations
of the very short-run developments that may correspond to intensive supplier linkages.
On the other hand, business cycle frequencies (cycles with periods between 1.5 and 8
years) are typically negative. Nevertheless, countries facing a comparably longer history
of intensive trading links tend to show also slightly higher correlations of business
cycles with China.
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