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DETERMINANTS OF BUSINESS CYCLE COMOVEMENT.pdf
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Marianne Baxter, Michael Kouparitsas
This paper investigates the determinants of business cycle comovement between countries. Our
dataset includes over 100 countries, both developed and developing. We search for variables that
are “robust” in explaining comovement, using the approach of Leamer (1983). Variables considered
are (i) bilateral trade between countries; (ii) total trade in each country; (iii) sectoral structure; (iv)
similarity in export and import baskets; (v) factor endowments; and (vi) gravity variables. We find
that bilateral trade is robust. However, two variables that the literature has argued are important for
business cycles – industrial structure and currency unions – are found not to be robust.
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