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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国证券市场成立以来的历史回顾
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：28
【目录或简介】：
Chinese stocks listed overseas have had four major boom/bust cycles
during the past 16 years since the first H shares came to the market. The
last cycle, from mid-2003 to late 2007, was the longest China bull market as
well as the one with the strongest fundamental support and global impact.
During this period, the mega China companies had started to list overseas.
Since then, sector weightings of the China stocks have been dominated by
the financials, commodities and telecoms sectors.
■ We think the Chinese economy will still search for its long-term growth
driver before consumption takes off. Exports, one of the two major engines
which drove the 2003-08 economic and market upturn, are set to grow at a
much slower pace. Investment growth would also likely to slow given the
slowdown in investment growth in rich coastal provinces. Both the
government and the market have high hopes on consumption being the next
major growth driver for China. Although this should happen, we believe it will
take sometime to nurture China’s consumer market, given constraints like
uneven income distribution and a lack of consumer debt culture.
■ Higher share of index weightings. When the next big China bull market
comes, we should see the consumer-related sectors accounting for a much
higher share of index weightings, and our model portfolio has been
structurally geared towards this scenario.
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