我正在做一个关于人口出生率的时间序列分析,碰到一些问题,做出了时序图,做了简单移动平均平滑化处理、季节性分解,做到简单指数平滑和Holt两参数指数平滑,出现了下面的问题:#简单指数平滑
x$forecasts<-HoltWinters(x,beta=F,gamma=F)
x$forecasts
plot(x$forecasts)
运行出来是这样的:
> x$forecasts<-HoltWinters(x,beta=F,gamma=F)
Warning message:
In x$forecasts <- HoltWinters(x, beta = F, gamma = F) :
把公式左手强迫变成串列
> x$forecasts
Holt-Winters exponential smoothing without trend and without seasonal component.
Call:
HoltWinters(x = x, beta = F, gamma = F)
Smoothing parameters:
alpha: 0.9999339
beta : FALSE
gamma: FALSE
Coefficients:
[,1]
a 8.000026
> plot(x$forecasts)
Holt两参指数平滑:
#Holt两参指数平滑
x.fit<-HoltWinters(x,gamma=F)
x.fit
plot(x.fit)
运行出现了错误:
> x.fit<-HoltWinters(x,gamma=F)
Error in x[2L] - x[1L] : 二进列运算符中有非数值参数
> x.fit
Call:
arima(x = x, order = c(0, 1, 2), method = "ML")
Coefficients:
ma1 ma2
-0.1099 -0.3618
s.e. 0.0798 0.0781
sigma^2 estimated as 0.02391: log likelihood = 60.29, aic = -114.57
> plot(x.fit)
有大佬给解答一下吗