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2009.12.01：UBS Global I/O: Telecom Equipment
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UBS
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2010 – changing of the guard continues
􀂄 Lifting our capex KGI; handset volume forecasts unchanged
We have increased our 2010E global capex forecast from -3.5% to -3.0% at const
curr. Our wireless capex forecast goes from -2.8% to -1.9% (+1.5% headline) with
lowered expectations in Europe and India offset by increases in Japan, US and
RoW. Our handset volume forecasts (11% growth in 2010E) remain unchanged.
􀂄 Awaiting evidence of either vendor revenue cuts or mix improvement
Our vendor revenue growth forecast (+6.5%) is higher than our capex expectations
(by c.500bps) vs. historically capex growth outpacing vendor revenue growth. This
reversal suggests either downside to vendor revenues (8% downside), upside to
capex or an improvement in mix. To date there has been some evidence of mix
improvement (Vodafone, TEF), but more evidence (Chinese competition) that
vendor revenues are too high. Our capex work suggests that there could be
downside risks to Ericsson’s revenues in Q4.
􀂄 Themes for 2010: cyclical recovery, industry repair, Chinese competition
We believe the key focus in 2010 will be on the extent of cyclical recovery. In
infrastructure key themes will be competition vs. mix improvement, market repair,
single RAN, and initial LTE launches. For devices, the focus will be on
smartphone competition and possible shakeout in OS strategies. The threat from
Chinese vendors (particularly ZTE) will be a central theme across sub-sectors.
􀂄 Stock preferences: Apple, ARM, Gemalto, Qualcomm, Samsung, ZTE
Our most preferred stocks globally are Apple, ARM, Gemalto, Qualcomm,
Samsung Electronics and ZTE. And our least preferred stock is Palm.
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