用的是arma(3,3)-egarch(1,1)模型,结果如下:
Presample variance: backcast (parameter = 0.7)
LOG(GARCH) = C(8) + C(9)*ABS(RESID(-1)/@SQRT(GARCH(-1))) + C(10)
*RESID(-1)/@SQRT(GARCH(-1)) + C(11)*LOG(GARCH(-1))
Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.
C 0.091784 0.031671 2.898059 0.0038
AR(1) -0.020128 0.088556 -0.227293 0.8202
AR(2) 0.017574 0.078857 0.222856 0.8236
AR(3) -0.847414 0.072570 -11.67717 0.0000
MA(1) 0.007875 0.087030 0.090488 0.9279
MA(2) 0.025499 0.077761 0.327913 0.7430
MA(3) 0.865214 0.075611 11.44290 0.0000
Variance Equation
C(8) -0.104767 0.009260 -11.31438 0.0000
C(9) 0.145544 0.013192 11.03252 0.0000
C(10) 0.031120 0.010268 3.030675 0.0024
C(11) 0.997764 0.001729 577.0544 0.0000
R-squared 0.001493 Mean dependent var 0.068456
Adjusted R-squared -0.004547 S.D. dependent var 1.648530
S.E. of regression 1.652273 Akaike info criterion 3.258624
Sum squared resid 2708.168 Schwarz criterion 3.312652
Log likelihood -1616.683 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.279159
Durbin-Watson stat 1.909760
Inverted AR Roots .47+.81i .47-.81i -.96
Inverted MA Roots .47-.83i .47+.83i -.95
现在有两个问题想请教一下各位大神:
1.arma中不是所有的变量都通过检验(不是所有p值均小于0.05),这样的结果可以吗?
2.arch项和garch项系数之和大于1,因为课本上并没有注明egarch模型有这一项约束条件,但garch模型中是有的,想问一下两项系数之和必须小于1吗?
麻烦各位帮忙解答一下,谢谢♪(・ω・)ノ!


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