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„ Forecasting 170-180 Bcf withdrawal to be reported on Thursday
We expect EIA report a 170-180 Bcf withdrawal, bullish vs. 2008’s 124 Bcf
withdrawal and the 5-year average of a 108 Bcf withdrawal. We expect inventories
to decline to 3,598 Bcf, narrowing the surplus versus last year and the 5-year
average to 431 Bcf and 506 Bcf, respectively.
„ US weather cooler than last year and the 5-year average
Last week, US weather was 9% and 17% cooler than the yr ago week and 5-yr avg.
Since Sep, weather has been 3% warmer than last year but 2% cooler than the 5-
year average. Roughly 71% of winter heating degree days remain ahead of us.
„ Forecasting storage to exit this winter at 1.9 Tcf
We estimate the weather-adjusted S/D balance has been ~1.5 Bcfd undersupplied
relative to the 5-year average over the last month. However, persistent warmer-
than- normal weather delayed the first withdrawal of the season, creating an even
larger surplus to be worked off. Further tightening (to the tune of another 2-3 Bcfd)
will be needed to displace fuel switching demand from coal, and allow natural gas
prices to stay above the $5/MMBtu fuel switching price threshold. We
preliminarily forecast withdrawals end this winter at nearly 1.9 Tcf on March 31.
„ E&Ps are discounting $5.90/Mcf long-term, normalized natural gas prices
This compares to the 2010 & long-dated (2014) futures curves of $5.71/MMBtu &
$7.09/MMBtu. Our top E&P picks are: APA, OXY, and SWN.
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